TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$142,891,824
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,211,057,904
339,560
Markets across
34,155
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,672
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
At least 2.0°C
- Kalshi
At least 2.0°C - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Apr 5, 2027
Latest in Climate and Weather
Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.0°C?
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Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Description
This event group concerns whether a Super El Niño will occur during the winter of 2026–27, defined by specific thresholds in the Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI). The outcome depends on official NOAA Climate Prediction Center reports of RONI values across several overlapping seasons.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms agree that a Super El Niño is confirmed if NOAA reports a RONI of +2.0°C or higher in any listed season, with immediate resolution upon first publication and no later revisions.Primary resolution logic: Official NOAA Climate Prediction Center RONI updatesCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves "Yes" if NOAA reports RONI ≥ +2.0°C for any season from ASO 2026 to DJF 2026-27
- Resolution occurs immediately upon first qualifying publication; no revisions after initial release
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Season Overlap: If a qualifying RONI appears in one season but drops below threshold in the next, the market remains "Yes" as the event has already occurred
- No Qualifying Data: If no season meets the threshold by the end of DJF 2026-27, the market resolves "No"
Polymarket
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF). This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the peak RONI value published in the NOAA Climate Prediction Center official RONI table for the NDJ 2026-27 season, using only final (non-preliminary) values. The peak value is identified as the single most extreme reading during the three-month period. Markets are segmented by RONI magnitude: below 0.5°C, 0.5–0.9°C, 1.0–1.4°C, 1.5–1.9°C, and 2.0°C or higher, with each range corresponding to a separate market outcome. Expiration occurs one week after NOAA publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period within the NDJ 2026-27 timeframe. If the peak value can be conclusively determined earlier—such as when the season formally ends and all relevant data are finalized—expiration may be accelerated.