TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

Natural Disaster in 2026?

polymarket

kalshi

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Total volume:

$243,097

Volume 24h:

$96

22%

Liquidity:

$2,533

5%

Open interest:

$24,113N/A

Natural Disaster in 2026?

- Polymarket

Natural Disaster in 2026? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 22¢ buys you 455 shares | Odds: 22% Total Payout: $455 | Net Profit: $355 Multiplier: 4.55x | ROI: 355% High Projected APY: 7,933% 125 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Natural Disaster in 2026?

22%

Yes 22¢

No 79¢

1¢

$2,533

$243,097

0.04%

0.86%

N/A

4mo 5d

active

kalshi

Category 1 or above

N/A

N/A

89¢

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3mo 5d

active

kalshi

Category 2 or above

N/A

N/A

90¢

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3mo 5d

active

kalshi

Category 3 or above

N/A

N/A

90¢

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3mo 5d

active

kalshi

Category 4 or above

N/A

N/A

90¢

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3mo 5d

active

kalshi

Category 5 or above

N/A

N/A

77¢

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

3mo 5d

active

Total markets: 6

Description

This event group determines whether a significant natural disaster occurs in 2026, defined by specific catastrophic events such as major hurricanes, meteor strikes, volcanic eruptions, or massive earthquakes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets have fundamentally different resolution criteria — Polymarket is based on natural disasters, while Kalshi is based solely on Polo's wind speeds.Hero tip: Traders should be extremely cautious as these markets resolve based on entirely different events. Polymarket requires any major natural disaster, while Kalshi only cares about Polo's wind speeds.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if any of the following occur during 2026 ET: Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, major meteor strike (10kt+), major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6), or 8.5+ earthquake. Otherwise resolves to No.
Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if Polo reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 74 mph, 96 mph, 111 mph, 130 mph, or 157 mph.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Polo reaches specified wind speed thresholds corresponding to different hurricane categories. Each rule defines a category based on maximum sustained winds: Category 1 (≥74 mph), Category 2 (≥96 mph), Category 3 (≥111 mph), Category 4 (≥130 mph), and Category 5 (≥157 mph). If any threshold is met before December 1, 2026, the market expires at 10:00 AM ET the following day.