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Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Climate and Weather
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
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Description
This event group tracks the ranking of the year 2026 among the hottest years on record based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Markets will resolve based on where 2026 stands relative to other years, with specific questions about whether it will be the hottest, second-hottest, third-hottest, fourth-hottest, fifth-hottest, or sixth-hottest (or lower).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use the same data source and ranking methodology to determine the resolution outcome.Primary resolution logic: NASA's GISTEMP dataset (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt)Core resolution logic:
- Ranking is determined by the 'No_Smoothing' column in the specified NASA GISTEMP table
- Years are ranked in descending order of temperature, with the hottest year as rank 1
- If 2026 ties with another year, it takes the rank of the year it ties with
- Resolution occurs immediately once the data for 2026 becomes available, even if later revised
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Data Unavailable: If NASA does not provide 2026 data by March 1, 2027, resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting
- Tie Resolution: If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the rank of the year it ties with
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Hurricane Winnie achieves specified wind speed thresholds that correspond to different hurricane categories, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5. Each threshold represents a distinct level of storm intensity, with Category 1 requiring winds of at least 74 mph and Category 5 requiring winds of at least 157 mph. If the hurricane reaches or exceeds any of these thresholds before December 01, 2026, the market resolves affirmatively. Regardless of which threshold is met, the market will expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the qualifying event. The structure allows for multiple potential outcomes based on the storm's peak intensity, with each category acting as a separate but related condition for resolution.