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Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
- Polymarket
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? - Polymarket
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·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Climate and Weather
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
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Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Description
This event group concerns whether California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater in the year 2026. The outcome depends on official earthquake data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms require a USGS-reported earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater within California's territorial boundaries by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.Primary resolution logic: United States Geological Survey (USGS)Core resolution logic:
- Magnitude must be 7.0 or greater (final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates)
- Epicenter must be within California's territorial boundaries as recognized under U.S. law
- Occurrence must be by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET
- Any single qualifying event resolves the market Yes, regardless of classification (mainshock, aftershock, foreshock)
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Border Earthquakes: Earthquakes on the California border are qualifying only if USGS lists the epicenter coordinates within California's boundaries
- USGS Unavailability: In the rare case USGS becomes unavailable, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may resolve the market
Polymarket
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries. Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock. Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Kalshi
If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.