TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$101,900,907

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,178,729,067

335,697

Markets across

33,528

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,579

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Precipitation in NYC in July?
polymarket
kalshi

Precipitation in NYC in July?

Total volume:
$119,629
Volume 24h:
$4,917
221%
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$68,557
8%

Above 1 inch

 - Kalshi

Above 1 inch - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 2, 2026

Time left: 05d:12h:10m

Rain in San Francisco in Aug 2026?

1%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 1¢ buys you 10,000 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $10,000 | Net Profit: $9,900 Multiplier: 100.00x | ROI: 9,900% APY not meaningful 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1 inch

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$43,707
12%
82%
$42,866
5d 12h 10m
active
kalshi

Above 2 inches

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$15,392
2%
32%
$14,420
5d 12h 10m
active
kalshi

Above 4 inches

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,201
0%
12%
$6,201
5d 12h 10m
active
kalshi

Above 3 inches

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,859
0%
45%
$2,859
5d 12h 10m
active
kalshi

Above 7 inches

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$837
0%
67%
$837
5d 12h 10m
active
kalshi

Above 5 inches

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$773
0%
76%
$773
5d 12h 10m
active
kalshi

Above 6 inches

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$601
0%
126%
$601
5d 12h 10m
active
polymarket

4-5"

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

5-6"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,987
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

2-3"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

<2"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,721
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

>6"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

3-4"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,506
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event group tracks precipitation levels in New York City during July and San Francisco during August 2026. The Polymarket questions focus on NYC precipitation ranges in July, while Kalshi markets focus on San Francisco precipitation thresholds in August.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental geographic and temporal divergence between NYC July precipitation ranges (Polymarket) and San Francisco August precipitation thresholds (Kalshi)Hero tip: These markets measure precipitation in different cities during different months. They cannot be correlated and should be treated as independent bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in July? Resolved using NOAA's Central Park data for July 2026 at 2 decimal precision
  • Kalshi: If CLISFO in San Francisco records >1" precipitation in August 2026, market resolves to Yes. Multiple threshold markets exist for >2", >3", etc.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for July 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of July 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

The event determines if total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco during August 2026 exceeds specified thresholds (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 inches). Resolution relies exclusively on the official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for San Francisco Airport, accessible via the provided URL. Traders must use the latest reported data, noting that preliminary NWS figures may undergo revisions due to rounding or conversion processes. While external weather services may offer guidance, only the NWS report serves as the definitive source, emphasizing the importance of caution when interpreting early or unofficial data.