TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$136,531,341
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,197,913,311
339,027
Markets across
34,284
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
- Polymarket
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Climate and Weather
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
$
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
Description
This event group concerns whether at least two hurricanes will make landfall in the United States in 2026. The outcome depends on official National Hurricane Center records and definitions of hurricane landfalls.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The markets have fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket requires landfalls in the conterminous US, while Kalshi requires a certain number of hurricanes regardless of landfall.Hero tip: Traders should carefully consider which market aligns with their view on hurricane activity. Polymarket traders should focus on landfall predictions, while Kalshi traders should consider overall hurricane frequency.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Requires at least 2 hurricane landfalls in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026. A landfall counts if the storm's surface center intersects the coastline while maintaining hurricane strength.
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if more than 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, or 15 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur between January 1 and December 1, 2026, regardless of whether they make landfall.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.
Kalshi
During the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, from January 1 through December 1, 2026, the NOAA National Hurricane Center will track and record all hurricanes that reach Category 1 strength or above. Multiple markets measure whether the total count of such hurricanes will exceed various thresholds: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, or 15 hurricanes. Each market resolves to Yes if the recorded count surpasses its respective threshold. The market will expire at the earlier of either the event occurrence or one day after December 1, 2026.