TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Dec 12, 2025, 11:46 AM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$14,738,644
Volume 24h:
$33,453
41%
Liquidity:
$895,668
7%
Open interest:
$556,979N/A

$100M

 - Polymarket

$100M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97.5¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 2% 491 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$100M

Trade
97%
2%
Yes 97.5¢No 2.6¢
0.1¢
$23,788
$48,416
8%
38%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

$200M

Trade
95%
Yes 96.1¢No 5.9¢
2¢
$28,127
$53,716
0.48%
25%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

$300M

Trade
92%
2%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
$28,415
$242,566
0.2%
6%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

$500M

Trade
79%
1%
Yes 79¢No 22¢
1¢
$41,291
$802,097
0.5%
3%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$500M

Trade
76%
Yes 78.3¢No 27.3¢
5.6¢
$131,786
$890,822
0.01%
2%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
77.5%
Yes 78.6¢No 24.7¢
Avg: 3.3¢Max: 5.6¢
polymarket

$800M

Trade
63%
Yes 64¢No 38¢
2¢
$41,320
$309,761
1%
22%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$800M

Trade
60%
Yes 63.2¢No 42.7¢
5.9¢
$59,798
$819,137
0.01%
0.72%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
61.5%
Yes 63.6¢No 40.3¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 5.9¢
polymarket

$1B

Trade
55%
Yes 55¢No 46¢
1¢
$45,418
$220,527
0.42%
22%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$1B

Trade
54%
Yes 60¢No 53¢
13¢
$38,194
$840,328
0%
0.63%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
54.5%
Yes 57.5¢No 49.5¢
Avg: 7¢Max: 13¢
predict

$2B

Trade
26%
3%
Yes 31¢No 79.7¢
10.7¢
$73,455
$1,605,751
0.03%
1%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
23%
6%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
$30,059
$138,832
4%
21%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
24.5%
Yes 27¢No 78.9¢
Avg: 5.9¢Max: 10.7¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
12%
Yes 12.1¢No 89¢
1.1¢
$30,094
$67,559
7%
24%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$3B

Trade
11%
Yes 13.1¢No 92¢
5.1¢
$69,518
$2,768,830
0.26%
1%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
11.5%
Yes 12.6¢No 90.5¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 5.1¢
polymarket

$5B

Trade
7%
Yes 7.1¢No 93.7¢
0.8¢
$30,003
$73,589
0.95%
7%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$5B

Trade
6%
Yes 7.3¢No 95.3¢
2.6¢
$134,557
$3,355,154
0.01%
0.68%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6.5%
Yes 7.2¢No 94.5¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 2.6¢
predict

$4B

Trade
6%
Yes 8.8¢No 96¢
4.8¢
$64,323
$2,377,469
0%
0.6%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

$4B

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 6.3¢No 94.7¢
1¢
$25,522
$124,090
2%
3%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6%
Yes 7.6¢No 95.4¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 4.8¢
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks whether Variational's governance token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the day after its public launch. The group consists of 11 linked binary markets, each asking if the FDV will exceed a different dollar amount ($100M through $5B), with a hard deadline of December 31, 2027 for token launch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Token fungibility requirement is explicit and mandatory on Predict but absent from Polymarket's criteria. This creates a scenario where the same token launch could resolve differently across platforms if the token does not meet standard fungible token specifications.Hero tip: Before Variational launches, confirm the token standard (ERC-20, SPL, native, or other fungible standard). If Variational issues a non-standard or non-fungible token, Predict markets will likely resolve NO regardless of FDV, while Polymarket markets may still resolve based on price and supply data. Hedge accordingly or clarify with Polymarket moderators in advance.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Requires token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. No explicit fungibility standard mandated. Resolution source is the most liquid price source available. FDV = total token supply × token price.
  • Predict: Explicitly requires fungible token standards (ERC-20, SPL, native L1, or equivalent). Explicitly excludes non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155. Primary resolution source is Variational information with credible reporting consensus as fallback. FDV = total token supply × token price.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. The token must be fungible, meaning all units of the token are identical and interchangeable. Examples of qualifying fungible token standards include: - ERC-20 or compatible/derivative standards on any EVM-compatible chain - SPL / SPL Token-2022 standard on Solana - Native blockchain tokens (e.g., a project's own Layer 1 chain coin) - Equivalent fungible token standards on other blockchains Non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155 tokens will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The Variational FDV launch market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Predict, tracking whether the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of launch. Combined volume across both platforms totals $14,531,375, with $26,561 in recent 24-hour activity. This cross-platform view reveals consensus expectations: Polymarket currently prices the outcome at 97.5%, while Predict reflects 75.5%. The dashboard consolidates these signals to show real-time market sentiment on Variational's post-launch valuation trajectory.

Prediction market odds on this market reflect trader conviction about post-launch FDV rather than current spot price. Markets price in uncertainty around launch momentum, initial liquidity conditions, and broader crypto sentiment at the time of release. Odds diverge from simple extrapolation because they embed tail risks—regulatory headwinds, exchange delays, or competing launches—that spot markets may underweight. Traders use these odds to hedge or speculate on whether early adoption and hype will sustain valuations above the threshold, making them a forward-looking gauge distinct from pre-launch pricing signals.

Polymarket and Predict serve different trader bases with varying risk appetites and liquidity profiles. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket typically attracts retail and sophisticated traders with lower barriers to entry, while Predict draws institutional and high-conviction participants. Differences in fee structures, UI design, and promotional activity also influence order flow. Additionally, each platform may host slightly different outcome thresholds or settlement interpretations, creating natural price discovery gaps. These spreads often narrow as resolution approaches, but they persist because arbitrage costs and platform-specific friction prevent perfect convergence.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Variational's fully diluted valuation reaches the specified level exactly one day after its official launch. Traders should monitor official announcements and major market data providers to track the FDV figure as it emerges post-launch. Any ambiguity in launch timing or valuation methodology will be clarified by the platform's resolution team before final settlement.

Major catalysts include official launch date confirmation, pre-launch hype cycles, and broader crypto market sentiment shifts. Regulatory news affecting token launches or exchange listings could suppress or boost odds significantly. Competitor token launches or major ecosystem developments may redirect capital flows and reshape expectations around Variational's initial valuation. Insider or community sentiment leaks, partnerships announced pre-launch, and macro crypto volatility all influence trader positioning. As launch approaches, real-time exchange listing announcements and early trading volume will become the dominant price drivers, with final odds reflecting last-minute conviction shifts.