TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
polymarket
kalshi

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Total volume:
$40,712,149
Volume 24h:
$6,997
32%
Liquidity:
$101,049
7%
Open interest:
$5,669,529
0%

by December 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

by December 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?

30%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 30¢ buys you 333 shares | Odds: 30% Total Payout: $333 | Net Profit: $233 Multiplier: 3.33x | ROI: 233% | APY: 144% 491 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

by December 31, 2027

Trade
30%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
$13,801
$2,075
15%
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

by September 30, 2027

Trade
22%
Yes 24¢No 80¢
4¢
$5,445
$358
55%
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

by June 30, 2027

Trade
16%
Yes 17¢No 86¢
3¢
$5,572
$3,386
0.74%
N/A
N/A
10mo 1w
active
polymarket

by March 31, 2027

Trade
11%
49%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
$5,247
$802
15%
N/A
N/A
7mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before January 2027

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
N/A
$1,090,962
0.43%
7%
$543,391
5mo 6d
active
polymarket

by December 31, 2026

Trade
3%
Yes 3.1¢No 97¢
0.1¢
$70,984
$2,819,728
0.02%
0.84%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
4.5%
Yes 5.1¢No 96¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Before September 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,005,754
0.07%
3%
$489,341
5mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before June 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,394,595
N/A
N/A
$2,669,461
5mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before May 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,678,944
N/A
N/A
$1,104,224
5mo 6d
No
polymarket

by June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,066,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Before July 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$424,577
N/A
N/A
$377,079
5mo 6d
No
polymarket

by December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,555,670
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Before August 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$889,445
N/A
N/A
$486,032
5mo 6d
No
polymarket

by September 30, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$778,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

by March 31, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin will reach a price of $150,000 USD by December 31, 2026, with the current aggregated consensus showing a leading probability of 4.0% for a "Yes" outcome across Polymarket and Kalshi, resolving based on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle high prices. The second outcome, reaching $149,999.99 by August 31, 2026, holds a 1.0% probability. Watch for any Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle hitting or exceeding $150,000 before the end of the betting period on December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket specifies Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle HIGH as the exclusive resolution source with precise methodology, while Kalshi lacks exchange specification, trading pair detail, and candle type definition. Additionally, Kalshi contains incomplete template placeholders in its resolution logic.Hero tip: Polymarket provides deterministic, auditable resolution via Binance 1m candle data. Kalshi's ambiguity on data source creates settlement risk. For hedging purposes, treat Polymarket as the primary reference and Kalshi as secondary until Kalshi publishes complete resolution specifications. Monitor both platforms for any clarifications or amendments.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle HIGH reaches 150000 or above by specified date at 11:59PM ET. Explicitly excludes other exchanges and trading pairs. Provides direct link to Binance chart for verification.
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if Bitcoin price is above 149999.99 by specified dates. Does not specify exchange, trading pair, candle methodology, or data source. Contains incomplete template placeholders (||Above/Below||, ||Date||, ||Time||, ||Count||) indicating unfinalized resolution logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

When will Bitcoin hit $150k

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $149,999.99 at any point through the specified resolution windows. The first confirmed resolution opportunity occurs by April 30, 2026 at 11:59pm ET, with subsequent windows extending through May 31, 2026 and beyond. Price determination uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), calculated as an average of values sampled during any sixty-second period with the top 20% and bottom 20% of data points excluded to filter outliers. This methodology is applied consistently across all resolution windows, with pricing data available 24/7 throughout the contract period. The market resolves affirmatively upon the first confirmed instance where Bitcoin's price meets or exceeds the $150,000 threshold during any of the designated resolution periods.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin $150K price target market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking whether Bitcoin will reach $150,000 before the end of January 2027. This market has attracted significant participation, with combined volume of $40,641,226 and recent 24-hour activity of $27,529. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, the dashboard reveals consensus conviction around this milestone and exposes divergences in how different prediction exchanges price the same event. Traders use these cross-platform views to identify arbitrage opportunities and gauge the true probability of Bitcoin reaching this price level.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, not current spot price. On Polymarket, the implied probability stands at 29.5%, while Kalshi prices the outcome at 6.0%. This spread of 23.5 percentage points suggests meaningful disagreement about Bitcoin's path to $150,000. Spot price alone cannot predict future movement; these markets incorporate macroeconomic conditions, regulatory sentiment, adoption trends, and technical factors. Comparing market odds to your own conviction on Bitcoin's trajectory helps identify whether this market offers value relative to your expectations.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, use distinct contract mechanics, and may interpret the $150,000 threshold slightly differently. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Liquidity concentration, fee structures, and platform-specific risk tolerances also create natural price gaps. Polymarket may attract retail traders seeking broad exposure, while Kalshi draws institutional participants with tighter risk controls. Additionally, each platform's user interface and marketing emphasis can shift which outcomes receive more attention and capital. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at materially different odds, creating opportunities for informed traders to arbitrage the spread.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once Bitcoin's price movement is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on whether Bitcoin has traded at or above $150,000 at any point before the deadline. Traders holding positions through expiration will see their outcomes settled based on this straightforward price threshold. Until that date, positions remain open and can be traded, allowing participants to adjust exposure as new information emerges and conviction shifts.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation data, and geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite. Regulatory announcements—whether supportive or restrictive—can swing Bitcoin sentiment sharply. Corporate adoption news, spot ETF inflows, and macroeconomic recession signals all influence whether traders believe $150,000 is achievable. Technical chart patterns and on-chain metrics like exchange flows and whale accumulation often trigger repricing. Additionally, competing assets and traditional market volatility can redirect capital flows. Monitoring these signals helps traders anticipate market moves and time entries or exits strategically before resolution.