TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Bitcoin above ___ on June 19? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 02d:13h:33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19?
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$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will exceed $58,000 at noon ET on June 19, 2026. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 99.6% probability that Bitcoin closes above this threshold. Both platforms resolve using Bitcoin price data, though they employ different sources and methodologies as detailed in the Resolution Divergence Alerts panel. Watch the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at 12:00 PM ET on June 19, 2026, as this specific moment determines the final settlement outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms use different price indices (Binance BTC/USDT vs CF Benchmarks BRTI), different measurement times (12:00 PM ET vs 5:00 PM EDT), and different methodologies (single 1-minute candle close vs 60-second average). This creates potential for conflicting resolutions on identical price thresholds.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve identically for the same price level. The 5-hour time gap and different data sources mean Bitcoin could be above a threshold at noon but below it at 5 PM, or vice versa. Track both indices separately and adjust position sizing accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on June 19. Single snapshot measurement from a centralized exchange spot market. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final Close price higher than the price specified in the title.'Kalshi:
Resolves based on CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average at 5:00 PM EDT (17:00) on June 19. Uses a composite index methodology and measures 5 hours later than Polymarket. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 consecutive seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prices collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 19, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold in $500 increments, with resolution occurring if the average price exceeds the threshold value by at least $0.01. For example, the $50,500 outcome resolves Yes if the average is above $50,499.99, the $51,000 outcome if above $50,999.99, continuing through the $75,000 outcome if above $74,999.99. CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index is the authoritative price source for this market; prices from other sources like Google or Coinbase may differ from the official RTI used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake, not necessarily where spot prices are trading today. On this market, the implied probabilities baked into trader positions often diverge from near-term technical or fundamental views, because markets price in tail risks, funding costs, and longer-dated macro uncertainty. Comparing the odds here to current Bitcoin spot levels and futures curves can reveal whether the market is pricing in a bullish or bearish bias relative to today's price action.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks, which can cause temporary price gaps. Kalshi and Polymarket may also have different fee structures, user interfaces, and settlement mechanics that influence how participants price the same outcome. These differences typically narrow over time as arbitrageurs exploit spreads, but during low-volume periods or market stress, divergence can persist and create trading opportunities.
This market resolves around Jun 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on where Bitcoin's price settles on that date, measured against the specific price level embedded in this market's terms. Traders should monitor official exchange data and news sources as the date approaches to gauge how final settlement will be determined.
Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory developments affecting crypto markets, and shifts in institutional adoption or custody narratives. Bitcoin's correlation with equities and risk sentiment can amplify moves during market dislocations. Additionally, on-chain metrics, mining difficulty adjustments, and geopolitical events affecting energy or capital flows may influence trader positioning. Monitoring these signals helps you anticipate directional shifts in this market before they're fully priced in.
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