TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
kalshi
predict
opinion

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$72,382,363
Volume 24h:
$37,107,265
573%
Liquidity:
$477,480
3%
Open interest:
$36,979
0.03%

$3B

all

3 markets

Opinion

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

$3B

13%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 13¢ buys you 769 shares | Odds: 13% Total Payout: $769 | Net Profit: $669 Multiplier: 7.69x | ROI: 669% APY not meaningful 64 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

$3B

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 95.6¢
8.6¢
N/A
$22,858,321
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
predict

$3B

Trade
5%
Yes 4.9¢No 95.3¢
0.2¢
$39,752
$2,350,553
0.04%
0.15%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$3B

Trade
4%
Yes 4.7¢No 96.2¢
0.9¢
$26,579
$837,360
0%
0.08%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12%
Yes 7.5¢No 95.7¢
Avg: 3.2¢Max: 8.6¢
polymarket

$100M

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
$1,950
$322,212
0.04%
0.51%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

$2,000,000,000+

Trade
22%
3%
Yes 22¢No 81¢
3¢
N/A
$114,251
0.22%
3%
$18,340
2mo 5d
active
opinion

$2B

Trade
10%
Yes 16.9¢No 90¢
6.9¢
N/A
$5,511,300
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
predict

$2B

Trade
5%
Yes 5.1¢No 95¢
0.1¢
$53,254
$1,713,179
0.01%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 6¢No 96.6¢
2.6¢
$69,079
$559,200
0.05%
0.14%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.7%
Yes 12.5¢No 90.7¢
Avg: 3.2¢Max: 6.9¢
kalshi

$12,000,000,000+

Trade
8%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$7,107
0%
0.26%
$2,562
2mo 5d
active
predict

$500M

Trade
9%
Yes 9.2¢No 92¢
1.2¢
$53,036
$3,529,929
0.61%
0.65%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$500M

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 7.7¢No 93.7¢
1.4¢
$24,364
$2,310,464
0.07%
0.18%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

$500M

Trade
2%
Yes 13.2¢No 98¢
11.2¢
N/A
$2,618,490
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8%
Yes 10¢No 94.6¢
Avg: 4.6¢Max: 11.2¢
polymarket

$100M

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 8.1¢No 93¢
1.1¢
$18,051
$170,524
0.26%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

$1B

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 99.9¢
12.9¢
N/A
$4,258,384
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
predict

$1B

Trade
7%
Yes 7.1¢No 93¢
0.1¢
$45,779
$5,598,201
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$1B

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$62,143
$2,146,043
0%
0.26%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6.9%
Yes 9¢No 95.6¢
Avg: 4.7¢Max: 12.9¢
polymarket

$300M

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
$17,548
$95,504
0.14%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

$10,000,000,000+

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
N/A
$3,591
0%
9%
$1,227
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

$5,000,000,000+

Trade
16%
3%
Yes 19¢No 84¢
3¢
N/A
$51,207
0.11%
7%
$8,980
2mo 5d
active
predict

$5B

Trade
3%
Yes 4.2¢No 97.7¢
1.9¢
$38,482
$9,623,357
2%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

$5B

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 99.7¢
3¢
N/A
$7,181,127
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

$5B

Trade
3%
Yes 3.8¢No 97.6¢
1.4¢
$27,463
$500,372
0.12%
0.38%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 7.6¢No 94.8¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

$8,000,000,000+

Trade
2%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
N/A
$11,019
0.09%
5%
$2,741
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

$15,000,000,000+

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$10,669
0%
4%
$3,130
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Opensea’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) being above $1999999999.99 one day after its token launch. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict, and Opinion gives a 39.0% probability to this outcome, with a 25.0% probability that the FDV will be above $4999999999.99. This market will resolve based on the most liquid price source available, according to the resolution rules, and will resolve to “No” if Opensea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Keep an eye on OpenSea’s official announcements regarding their token launch date, as that will begin the 4:00 PM ET window for resolution on the following calendar day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge on the resolution time and the source used to determine FDV. Polymarket uses 4:00 PM ET and 'the most liquid price source', while Kalshi uses 10:00 AM ET and CoinGecko.Hero tip: Pay close attention to the resolution time and the source used for FDV. A price move between 4:00 PM ET and 10:00 AM ET could cause discrepancies.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on FDV exceeding the threshold by 4:00 PM ET the day after launch, using the most liquid price source.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on FDV exceeding the threshold by 10:00 AM ET the day after launch, using CoinGecko as the source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by OpenSea's fully diluted valuation as displayed on CoinGecko at exactly 10:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027. The FDV must be sourced from the "FDV" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page and cannot be calculated from other metrics. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the last recorded FDV value before that time on the measurement date is used. If the coin is delisted before resolution, the final recorded FDV is used and the market resolves immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously, and post-redenomination values following any splits or reverse splits are applied. CoinGecko methodology changes do not affect resolution—the value displayed under the FDV label at measurement time is authoritative. All values are in USD and may be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.

Predict

This is a group of markets about OpenSea's FDV one day after launch.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Opensea FDV market tracks predictions on whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Opensea will exceed a specified threshold one day after its launch. Currently, this market shows a consensus view with a combined volume of $72,382,363 and 24-hour volume of $190,798. Polymarket currently favors Opensea FDV being above $500M one day after launch at 9.0%, while Kalshi leans toward the same outcome at 22.0%. This dashboard provides a way to monitor the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding Opensea's potential valuation.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, offer a forward-looking perspective on Opensea’s FDV, differing from current spot prices which reflect immediate market conditions. The prices on Polymarket and Kalshi represent the aggregated beliefs of traders about the probability of the FDV exceeding the target threshold. This differs from traditional financial analysis, which often relies on discounted cash flow models or comparable company valuations. By observing the implied probabilities within this market, you gain insight into the market’s expectations for Opensea’s future performance and potential growth.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of Opensea’s potential. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; a higher volume on one platform can result in tighter spreads and more efficient price discovery. Additionally, subtle differences in platform mechanics, such as fees or margin requirements, can contribute to price discrepancies. The 13.0 percentage point difference illustrates this dynamic.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea one day after its launch, as reported by a widely recognized data source. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and whether the FDV exceeded the target threshold at that time. The outcome of this market will be determined by objective data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Opensea regarding new features, partnerships, or user growth could shift expectations. Broader trends in the NFT market, such as overall trading volume or the performance of competitor platforms, will also be influential. Regulatory developments concerning NFTs or cryptocurrency could introduce uncertainty or boost confidence. Finally, macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or investor sentiment, could indirectly affect the perceived value of Opensea and, consequently, the prices within this market.