TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether OpenSea's token will achieve a fully diluted valuation exceeding $100 million within one day of its public launch. Aggregating data from Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 47.5%. Resolution will be determined by the most liquid price source available, with the token considered launched only once it is actively, publicly transferable and tradable. Watch for OpenSea's token launch announcement, as the market will resolve to "No" if no token launches by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Timing mismatch (10:00 AM UTC vs 4:00 PM ET, ~6 hour gap) and source specification divergence (CoinGecko vs most liquid source). Both are resolvable but create potential for different outcomes on the same event.Hero Tip:
If trading across platforms, be aware that Kalshi resolves 6 hours earlier using CoinGecko, while Limitless, Polymarket, and Predict resolve later using the most liquid available source. FDV can move significantly in that window. Kalshi's deterministic source is lower-risk; other platforms introduce discretionary source selection.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves at exactly 10:00 AM UTC on day +1 using CoinGecko FDV snapshot. Offers 6 distinct threshold markets: $2B, $5B, $8B, $10B, $12B, $15B. Source is explicitly CoinGecko with no fallback specified.Limitless:
Resolves at 4:00 PM ET on day +1 using the most liquid price source available (unspecified). Single threshold market: $1B. Includes hard deadline: if no token launch by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, resolves No.Polymarket:
Resolves at 4:00 PM ET on day +1 using the most liquid price source available (unspecified). Offers 8 distinct threshold markets: $100M, $300M, $500M, $1B, $2B, $3B, $5B. Same hard deadline as Limitless: December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.Predict:
Resolves at 4:00 PM ET on day +1 using the most liquid price source available (unspecified). Offers 5 distinct threshold markets: $500M, $1B, $2B, $3B, $5B. Same hard deadline: December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kalshi
Resolution is based on OpenSea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed in the "FDV" field on CoinGecko's main coin page at exactly 10:00 AM on the date one day after launch. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the FDV exceeds the specified threshold at that time. If no data is available at the exact time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the measurement date is used. If the coin is delisted before measurement, the last recorded FDV is used and the market resolves immediately. Token migrations and post-redenomination values are tracked continuously. All values are in USD as displayed on CoinGecko.
Predict
This is a group of markets about OpenSea's FDV one day after launch.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders betting on Opensea's FDV at a specific future moment, making them forward-looking indicators distinct from current spot valuations. Unlike traditional price feeds, these markets embed expectations about launch momentum, token distribution, and early adoption. The odds you see represent aggregated belief about where Opensea will trade one day post-launch, incorporating factors like comparable exchange launches, market conditions, and regulatory sentiment that spot prices alone may not fully capture.
Kalshi and Limitless operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user demographics, which can create pricing divergence on opensea fdv above ___ one day after launch. Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket attracts retail and sophisticated traders globally with lower barriers to entry, while Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with stricter KYC requirements, potentially drawing more institutional capital. Liquidity depth, order book dynamics, and the specific FDV thresholds offered on each platform also influence how odds settle, meaning the same event can trade at meaningfully different probabilities across venues until arbitrage narrows the gap.
This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on Opensea's verified fully diluted valuation exactly one day after its official launch, measured against the specified FDV threshold. The outcome is binary: either the FDV meets or exceeds the target, or it does not. Traders should monitor official announcements regarding launch timing and token metrics, as any delays or changes to the launch schedule could shift resolution mechanics.
Major catalysts include Opensea's official launch date announcement, token supply and allocation details, early user adoption metrics, and broader crypto market sentiment. Regulatory developments affecting NFT platforms or exchange launches could significantly reprrice expectations. Competitor announcements, macroeconomic shifts, and changes to Opensea's roadmap or governance structure may also influence trader positioning. Watch for pre-launch partnerships, marketing campaigns, and comparable exchange launches that could establish valuation benchmarks for where Opensea might land one day post-launch.
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