TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Total volume:
$64,611,982
Volume 24h:
$629,721
4%
Liquidity:
$4,005,782
7%
Open interest:
$1,191,624
0.18%

↓ 75,000

 - Polymarket

↓ 75,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?

82%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 83¢ buys you 120 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $120 | Net Profit: $20 Multiplier: 1.20x | ROI: 20% | APY: 71% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ 75,000

Trade
82%
7%
Yes 83¢No 19¢
2¢
$48,742
$7,395
463%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 85,000

Trade
73%
4%
Yes 73¢No 28¢
1¢
$69,438
$604,665
4%
162%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ 70,000

Trade
62%
5%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
$55,672
$43,726
59%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 90,000

Trade
53%
4%
Yes 53¢No 48¢
1¢
$98,537
$1,668,110
2%
19%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ 65,000

Trade
42%
2%
Yes 43¢No 59¢
2¢
$38,986
$16,178
45%
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 95,000

Trade
39%
1%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
$68,077
$361,509
15%
107%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $99,999.99

Trade
31%
Yes 31¢No 71¢
2¢
N/A
$1,374,214
0.58%
5%
$341,441
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 100,000

Trade
28%
1%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$99,130
$3,015,589
2%
18%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
29.5%
Yes 30¢No 71.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

↓ 55,000

Trade
28%
1%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
$127,925
$507,995
2%
337%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ 55,000

Trade
22%
2%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
$116,203
$5,730,165
0.91%
9%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 110,000

Trade
18%
2%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
$94,052
$1,476,680
0.27%
15%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $109,999.99

Trade
17%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
N/A
$586,637
0.2%
3%
$107,063
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
17.5%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Above $119,999.99

Trade
16%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
N/A
$560,282
0.05%
4%
$126,750
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 120,000

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$91,615
$1,581,426
0.54%
14%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
14.5%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

↓ 50,000

Trade
12%
4%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$193,408
$3,203,920
0.88%
14%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ 45,000

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$435,462
$5,644,442
0.39%
14%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $129,999.99

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$428,530
0%
0.62%
$99,861
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 130,000

Trade
7%
Yes 7.3¢No 93¢
0.3¢
$108,126
$1,246,560
1%
9%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8.5%
Yes 8.6¢No 92¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

↓ 40,000

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
$130,878
$1,923,688
0.93%
13%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $149,999.99

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$432,729
0%
4%
$149,170
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $139,999.99

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$283,540
0%
2%
$74,712
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑ 140,000

Trade
4%
Yes 4.5¢No 95.7¢
0.2¢
$104,515
$1,114,282
0.05%
5%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6%
Yes 6.3¢No 94.4¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

↓ 35,000

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$194,545
$2,931,756
1%
3%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓ 30,000

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 95.8¢
0.2¢
$102,901
$800,510
0.63%
7%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above $199,999.99

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$836,054
0.3%
1%
$292,627
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 25 of 53

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin will reach $65,000 by the end of 2026, based on real-time price data from the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus stands at 95.9% probability for this outcome. Resolution will be determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle prices, with the observation window running from November 24, 2025, through December 31, 2026, in Eastern Time. Watch the final trading day of 2026 to see whether Bitcoin touches this level during the designated window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different resolution sources (Binance 1-minute candle High/Low prices vs. CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index spot price) and different observation windows (Polymarket starts November 24, 2025 for most markets; Kalshi starts January 1-2, 2026), creating potential price discrepancies and timing misalignment.Hero tip: If you bet on Polymarket, your resolution depends on Binance 1m candle extremes, which can spike above or dip below the CF Index used on Kalshi. On Kalshi, you need sustained spot price above the threshold; on Polymarket, even a brief 1-minute candle touch triggers resolution. Kalshi's later start date (Jan 1-2, 2026) means it misses any price action Polymarket captures from Nov 24, 2025 onward.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High (for upside targets) or Low (for downside targets) touches the specified price between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. Resolution is immediate upon candle touch, regardless of final price. Quote: 'This market will immediately resolve to YES if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)...has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index spot price is above the specified threshold at any point starting January 1-2, 2026 (varies by market) through December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. Resolution requires the spot price to exceed the threshold, not merely touch it. Quote: 'If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $[threshold] starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

Kalshi

Bitcoin's maximum price in 2026 is measured using the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) with a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance through the specified time on December 31, 2026, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses a threshold at any point during the measurement period, the market immediately resolves to Yes for that outcome, triggering early expiration. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time, allowing traders to benefit from price movements that occur well before year-end.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates Bitcoin price predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking real-time odds for where BTC will trade by year-end 2026. It consolidates market sentiment from a combined liquidity pool of $61,668,197 across all tracked outcomes. The 24-hour volume of $634,821 reflects active trader positioning. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, you see consensus forecasts and spot divergences in how different markets price the same event, giving you a comprehensive view of institutional and retail expectations for Bitcoin's 2026 price target.

Prediction market odds embed forward-looking consensus about Bitcoin's trajectory over the next two years. These odds reflect traders' collective assessment of macro conditions, regulatory developments, and adoption trends—often diverging from current spot price assumptions. Markets typically price in volatility and tail risks that spot prices may underweight. By comparing prediction market probabilities across price thresholds on Polymarket and Kalshi, you can gauge whether the market expects Bitcoin to appreciate significantly, consolidate, or face headwinds relative to today's valuation.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi serve different user bases, operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, and may list slightly different outcome specifications for Bitcoin's 2026 price. Polymarket shows 82.0% probability for its top outcome, while Kalshi reflects 31.0%, a spread of 51.0 percentage points. Differences stem from liquidity concentration, fee structures, user sophistication, and timing of large trades. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms are often limited by withdrawal friction and regulatory constraints, allowing price discrepancies to persist.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by Bitcoin's verified price at that moment, typically sourced from major spot exchanges or reference rates. Traders should monitor the specific outcome criteria listed on each platform, as Polymarket and Kalshi may use slightly different price feeds or time windows for final settlement. Ensure you understand which exchange or data source each platform uses before placing trades, as this can affect which outcome is deemed correct.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation trends, and institutional adoption milestones. Regulatory announcements—particularly around spot Bitcoin ETFs, custody standards, or government holdings—can trigger sharp repricing. Macroeconomic recessions or credit events may pressure Bitcoin, while geopolitical tensions or currency crises could drive safe-haven demand. Technological developments like network upgrades, security incidents, or competing blockchain adoption also influence 2026 price expectations. Monitor on-chain metrics, corporate treasury announcements, and central bank digital currency progress for early signals of directional shifts.