TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
predict
polymarket
opinion
kalshi

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Total volume:
$84,759,295
Volume 24h:
$1,156,863
122%
Liquidity:
$4,445,391
6%
Open interest:
$1,328,434
0.06%

↓ 70,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

40%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 40¢ buys you 250 shares | Odds: 40% Total Payout: $250 | Net Profit: $150 Multiplier: 2.50x | ROI: 150% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ 70,000

Trade
40%
Yes 40¢No 61¢
1¢
$80,768
$1,320,804
2%
29%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↓ 70,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
$39,877
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39.5%
Yes 40¢No 61¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 6¢
predict

↑ 90,000

Trade
39%
5%
Yes 40.9¢No 63.9¢
4.8¢
$30,596
$200
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ 90,000

Trade
38%
9%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$96,890
$2,556,097
0.82%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
37.5%
Yes 39.4¢No 63.5¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 4.8¢
polymarket

↓ 65,000

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
$57,933
$692,099
0.18%
7%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↓ 65,000

Trade
24%
1%
Yes 25.9¢No 78¢
3.9¢
$34,515
$2,522
194%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.5%
Yes 25.5¢No 77¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 3.9¢
predict

↑ 95,000

Trade
25%
6%
Yes 27¢No 78¢
5¢
$39,263
$299
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ 95,000

Trade
23%
5%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
$89,331
$1,032,558
4%
6%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
22.5%
Yes 25¢No 78¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
predict

↓ 60,000

Trade
19%
32%
Yes 21¢No 84¢
5¢
$41,045
$177
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above $99,999.99

Trade
20%
3%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
N/A
$1,647,877
0.19%
2%
$383,615
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ 100,000

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$97,407
$3,969,977
0.05%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

↑ 100,000

Trade
8%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
$35,105
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
predict

↑ 100,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
3.2¢
$33,787
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.5%
Yes 29¢No 71.7¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3.2¢
polymarket

↓ 55,000

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
$88,968
$1,417,129
0.51%
7%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↓ 55,000

Trade
12%
Yes 13.1¢No 90¢
3.1¢
$33,436
$300
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.5%
Yes 15.6¢No 86.5¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 3.1¢
polymarket

↓ 55,000

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$212,360
$6,950,121
0.11%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

↓ 55,000

Trade
10%
Yes 10.3¢No 89.7¢
—
N/A
$257,674
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
11.5%
Yes 11.1¢No 89.4¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
opinion

↑ 110,000

Trade
50%
Yes 57¢No 99.9¢
56.9¢
N/A
$4,809
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above $109,999.99

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$725,464
0.02%
0.5%
$118,636
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ 110,000

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$104,341
$2,129,007
2%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↑ 110,000

Trade
9%
Yes 11¢No 93.9¢
4.9¢
$34,273
$571
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.6%
Yes 21.5¢No 94.5¢
Avg: 16¢Max: 56.9¢
polymarket

↓ 50,000

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
$168,115
$5,067,525
0.12%
13%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

↑ 120,000

Trade
11%
Yes 29.8¢No 70.2¢
—
N/A
$38,816
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

↑ 120,000

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$97,186
$2,271,781
0.09%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above $119,999.99

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$653,008
0.03%
1%
$158,949
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.4%
Yes 13.9¢No 86.7¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 25 of 72

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin reaching a price of $130,000 at any point during 2026. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi gives an estimated 96.6% probability to this outcome. Resolution will be determined by Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle data between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET, as detailed in the resolution source. Keep an eye on the final days of December 2026, as the market will resolve based on Bitcoin’s price during that period.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct data sources (CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, and unspecified Opinion source) with non-uniform observation windows create settlement fragmentation. Kalshi markets have staggered start dates ranging from 10/01/2025 to 01/02/2026; Polymarket markets observe from market creation or 11/24/2025; Opinion platform lacks explicit resolution mechanics.Hero tip: Do not assume cross-platform market equivalence. Verify the exact data source and observation window for each platform before trading. Kalshi's CF Index may diverge from Binance spot prices due to methodology differences. Polymarket's 1-minute candle approach can capture brief intraday spikes that index-based markets may miss. Opinion markets lack transparent resolution criteria and should be treated as sentiment indicators only.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index as sole resolution source. Markets have heterogeneous start dates: Market 5 begins 10/01/2025 10:00 AM (earliest), Markets 2-4 and 7 begin 01/01/2026 12:00 AM, Markets 1 and 6 begin 01/02/2026 06:00 PM. All end 12/31/2026 23:59 ET. Resolves YES if index price exceeds threshold at any point during window. Key quote: 'If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above [threshold]...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles as sole resolution source. Most markets observe from market creation through 12/31/2026 23:59 ET; some (e.g., Markets 1, 9) begin 11/24/2025 14:00 ET. Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle Low (for downside markets) or High (for upside markets) crosses threshold. Key quote: 'This market will immediately resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)...has a final Low/High price equal to or [lower/greater] than the price specified.'
  • Opinion: Provides directional price targets (11 markets: 6 upside targets ↑, 5 downside targets ↓) without explicit resolution mechanics, data source, or observation window. Targets range from ↓5,000 to ↑150,000. No resolution criteria specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by whether the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) crosses specified price thresholds at any point during the measurement period. The resolution value uses a trimmed mean calculation: all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance through the target date and time are collected, the top 20% and bottom 20% of values are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged. If the BRTI crosses a threshold during the measurement period, the market resolves immediately to Yes. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. Different thresholds have different measurement start times: the $99,999.99 and $109,999.99 thresholds begin measurement on 01/02/2026 at 06:00 PM ET, while higher thresholds ($119,999.99 and above) begin on 01/01/2026 at 12:00 AM ET. All thresholds measure through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Early resolution occurs if Bitcoin definitively crosses a threshold before the target date and time.

Predict

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

Opinion

Price source: Binance Spot BTCUSDT one-minute OHLC candles on the Binance chart with “1m” selected. No other exchanges or pairs are considered. Time window: From 00:00 ET on February 1, 2026 through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2026, inclusive of both endpoints. Meaning of “hit”: For any “↑ X” outcome: it immediately resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle’s High ≥ X at any time within the window; otherwise No. For any “↓ X” outcome: it immediately resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle’s Low ≤ X at any time within the window; otherwise No.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Bitcoin price in 2026 market dashboard tracks the collective prediction of traders regarding the price of Bitcoin on December 31, 2026. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms exceeds $84,759,295, with $305,075 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in forecasting Bitcoin's future value. The dashboard provides a consensus view, combining probabilities from both venues to offer a comprehensive outlook. The current spread between the highest and lowest predicted prices is approximately 19.5.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different pool of participants with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same underlying event. Furthermore, the way each platform structures its markets—contract types, margin requirements, and trading fees—can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? at 39.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? at 20.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available source for Bitcoin pricing data. This ensures an objective and transparent resolution process. Traders should monitor news and data sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential price movements and factors that could influence the final outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major regulatory decisions regarding cryptocurrency, particularly in the United States and Europe, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected macroeconomic shocks, such as shifts in interest rate policies or global recessions, could also drive price fluctuations. Technological developments related to Bitcoin, like advancements in scaling solutions or security protocols, could influence investor sentiment. Finally, significant adoption by institutional investors or large corporations could create upward pressure on the price, while negative news regarding security breaches or regulatory crackdowns could lead to declines.