TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$136,531,341
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,197,913,311
339,027
Markets across
34,284
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Above 75
- Kalshi
Above 75 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Sep 1, 2026
Latest in Climate and Weather
Time left: 04d:15h:30m
Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in August?
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Description
This event group tracks the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during July 2026. Markets resolve based on the official monthly count published by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Fundamental mismatch between July (Polymarket) and August (Kalshi) tornado countsHero tip: Treat Polymarket and Kalshi markets as separate events. Polymarket resolves based on July 2026 tornado counts while Kalshi resolves based on August tornado counts. Do not assume correlation between the two months.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on official NCEI monthly count for July 2026, published after August 10, 2026. Uses final published count regardless of preliminary labeling.
- Kalshi: Resolves based on preliminary number of tornadoes in August, with multiple threshold markets (above 25 to above 275).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the preliminary number of tornadoes reported in August 2026, using the official "Storm Reports Legend" from the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary." Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold: if the reported tornado count exceeds the threshold defined in the market's primary rule (e.g., above 25, above 50, etc.), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same data source and methodology for determining the tornado count, ensuring consistency across thresholds.