TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$136,531,341
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,197,913,311
339,027
Markets across
34,284
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
7.8+
- Kalshi
7.8+ - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Sep 1, 2026
Latest in Climate and Weather
Time left: 04d:15h:27m
Will an earthquake of at least 7.8 magnitude occur worldwide before Sep 1, 2026?
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Description
This event group tracks the number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher occurring worldwide between August 10 and August 16, 2026. The markets resolve based on data from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use the same resolution source (USGS) and timeframe (August 10 - August 16, 2026) to determine the exact count of qualifying earthquakes.Primary resolution logic: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards ProgramCore resolution logic:
- Count all earthquakes with magnitude 6.5 or higher recorded by USGS between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
- Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the count matches exactly the number specified in the question (e.g., 'exactly 3' markets resolve to 'Yes' if there are exactly 3 qualifying earthquakes)
- The 'more than 5' market resolves to 'Yes' if the count is 6 or higher
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Delayed Reporting: If a qualifying earthquake occurs on the final day, markets may remain open for 24 hours to allow for magnitude revisions
- Magnitude Revisions: If an earthquake's magnitude is revised upward to 6.5 or higher within 24 hours of occurrence, it counts toward the total
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of earthquake magnitudes, all measured using the Moment Magnitude Scale, occurring anywhere worldwide before September 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific magnitude threshold, ranging from 6.8 to 7.5 or higher. If an earthquake meets or exceeds any of these thresholds within the specified period, the respective market resolves positively. The structure allows participants to assess varying levels of seismic intensity, with higher thresholds representing more extreme events. All markets share the same temporal and geographic conditions, ensuring consistency across outcomes.