TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
limitless
polymarket
predict

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$7,261,190
Volume 24h:
$1,929,918
55,059%
Liquidity:
$575,982
5%
Open interest:
$830,932N/A

$150M

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

82%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 83¢ buys you 120 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $120 | Net Profit: $20 Multiplier: 1.20x | ROI: 20% | APY: 180% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$150M

Trade
82%
Yes 83¢No 19¢
2¢
$33,806
$677,617
1%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$150M

Trade
76%
Yes 76.1¢No 24.8¢
0.9¢
$49,019
$307,180
0.64%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

$150M

Trade
N/A
N/A
7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
80%
Yes 79.6¢No 21.9¢
Avg: 3.3¢Max: 7¢
polymarket

$300M

Trade
31%
5%
Yes 33¢No 72¢
5¢
$21,710
$1,549,997
0.13%
0.74%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$300M

Trade
28%
4%
Yes 30.5¢No 73.9¢
4.4¢
$42,541
$257,101
0.2%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

$300M

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
30.2%
Yes 31.8¢No 73¢
Avg: 5.8¢Max: 8¢
polymarket

$500M

Trade
15%
Yes 16¢No 86¢
2¢
$31,318
$1,207,254
0.36%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$500M

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 16¢No 86.3¢
2.3¢
$50,932
$308,057
0.5%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

$500M

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15%
Yes 16¢No 86.1¢
Avg: 4.1¢Max: 8¢
predict

$800M

Trade
9%
Yes 11.7¢No 93.8¢
5.5¢
$49,176
$71,552
0.76%
0.76%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$800M

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$26,359
$271,119
3%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

$800M

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7%
Yes 9.4¢No 93.9¢
Avg: 3.8¢Max: 5.5¢
predict

$1B

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 14.8¢No 95.7¢
10.5¢
$52,754
$370,487
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$1B

Trade
5%
Yes 4.8¢No 95.7¢
0.5¢
$21,814
$123,606
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

$1B

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.6%
Yes 9.8¢No 95.7¢
Avg: 4.7¢Max: 10.5¢
polymarket

$2B

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.9¢
0.8¢
$45,662
$117,024
0%
0.84%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$2B

Trade
1%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.3¢
1.5¢
$52,500
$432,773
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

$2B

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.4%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
2%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢
0.1¢
$46,992
$97,067
0.23%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$3B

Trade
1%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$51,398
$1,470,355
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
limitless

$3B

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.6%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 2.5¢
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution mechanics, timing definition, FDV calculation method, and launch qualification criteria with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Extended token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch

Core resolution logic:

  • Extended token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch event
  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price from the most liquid available price source
  • Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch (not 24 hours after launch time, but on the next calendar day)
  • Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold, No otherwise
  • If Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch timing and resolution day definition: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, not 24 hours after launch. A launch on Monday resolves at 4:00 PM ET Tuesday, regardless of launch time on Monday.
  • Most liquid price source selection: If multiple exchanges or trading venues exist at resolution time, the most liquid source (typically highest volume) is used. This requires auditor judgment at resolution time.
  • Token supply verification: Total token supply must be verifiable and fixed at resolution time. If supply is variable or contested, resolution may require official Extended documentation.
  • Deadline non-launch: If Extended has not launched a publicly tradable token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all eight markets resolve to No regardless of any subsequent launch.
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Extended's token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, the FDV market tracks the likelihood of the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of a newly launched cryptocurrency exceeding $150 million within one day of its launch. This market aggregates trading activity across both platforms, providing a consensus view of this probability. Currently, combined volume across both venues is $7,261,190, with $27,450 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard displays the current prices and volume on each platform, offering a comprehensive overview of sentiment regarding this specific event. This allows traders to compare and contrast opinions on the FDV outcome.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent the collective wisdom of traders regarding future events. They differ from simple spot price expectations because they reflect a probability-weighted assessment of potential outcomes. In this case, the price of the market indicates what percentage of traders believe the FDV will exceed $150 million within the specified timeframe. A higher price suggests greater confidence in that outcome. These probabilities can be valuable indicators, potentially offering insights beyond traditional market analysis, as they incorporate a diverse range of perspectives and information.

Prices for this market may differ between Polymarket and Predict due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and information access. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with differing risk appetites and analytical approaches. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery; lower volume may lead to greater price volatility. While both platforms address the same core question, these factors contribute to potential discrepancies in the odds offered. Currently, Polymarket currently favors the outcome of FDV exceeding $150M at 82.0%, while Predict leans toward the same outcome at 75.7%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the cryptocurrency one day after its launch, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted cryptocurrency data aggregator. The outcome will be determined by whether the FDV is above or below $150 million at that specific time. Traders should monitor relevant sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to understand the data being used to determine the outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. News regarding the cryptocurrency's listing on major exchanges, partnerships with prominent companies, or endorsements from influential figures could all drive price movement. Conversely, negative news, such as security vulnerabilities or regulatory concerns, could push prices lower. The overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and the performance of similar projects will also play a role. Additionally, the actual launch of the cryptocurrency and its initial trading volume will be key catalysts influencing the outcome of this market.