TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$6,746,752
Volume 24h:
$8,602
287%
Liquidity:
$557,320
3%
Open interest:
$909,185N/A

$150M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

62%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 64¢ buys you 156 shares | Odds: 62% Total Payout: $156 | Net Profit: $56 Multiplier: 1.56x | ROI: 56% | APY: 261% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$150M

Trade
62%
10%
Yes 64¢No 41¢
5¢
$24,230
$603,163
0.59%
11%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

$150M

Trade
57%
Yes 56.8¢No 43.3¢
0.1¢
$55,907
$284,227
0.21%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
59.5%
Yes 60.4¢No 42.2¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 5¢
predict

$800M

Trade
51%
Yes 95.8¢No 94¢
89.8¢
$37,655
$70,375
0%
0.02%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$800M

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$28,391
$245,800
0%
0.9%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
30%
Yes 52.4¢No 93¢
Avg: 45.4¢Max: 89.8¢
predict

$300M

Trade
42%
Yes 43.8¢No 60.9¢
4.7¢
$45,355
$211,405
0%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$300M

Trade
39%
Yes 40¢No 62¢
2¢
$39,964
$1,424,927
0.04%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
40.5%
Yes 41.9¢No 61.5¢
Avg: 3.4¢Max: 4.7¢
polymarket

$500M

Trade
16%
Yes 17¢No 85¢
2¢
$81,368
$1,087,455
0.01%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

$500M

Trade
14%
Yes 14.1¢No 86¢
0.1¢
$51,883
$225,400
0%
3%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
15%
Yes 15.6¢No 85.5¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
predict

$1B

Trade
16%
1%
Yes 30¢No 98.8¢
28.8¢
$52,698
$370,388
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$1B

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6.2¢No 95¢
1.2¢
$23,944
$113,723
3%
5%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
11%
Yes 18.1¢No 96.9¢
Avg: 15¢Max: 28.8¢
predict

$2B

Trade
2%
Yes 3.8¢No 99.3¢
3.1¢
$52,926
$432,773
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.8¢
0.9¢
$27,983
$112,958
0.04%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 3¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3.1¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.1¢
0.5¢
$23,018
$93,810
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

$3B

Trade
2%
Yes 3.8¢No 99.6¢
3.4¢
$11,997
$1,470,349
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 3.1¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3.4¢
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group tracks whether Extended's token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the day following its public launch. The group contains eight linked binary markets at different FDV price points ($150M, $300M, $500M, $800M, $1B, $2B, $3B), all sharing identical resolution criteria and timing.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution mechanics, timing definition, FDV calculation method, and launch qualification criteria with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Extended token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch

Core resolution logic:

  • Extended token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch event
  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price from the most liquid available price source
  • Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch (not 24 hours after launch time, but on the next calendar day)
  • Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold, No otherwise
  • If Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch timing and resolution day definition: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, not 24 hours after launch. A launch on Monday resolves at 4:00 PM ET Tuesday, regardless of launch time on Monday.
  • Most liquid price source selection: If multiple exchanges or trading venues exist at resolution time, the most liquid source (typically highest volume) is used. This requires auditor judgment at resolution time.
  • Token supply verification: Total token supply must be verifiable and fixed at resolution time. If supply is variable or contested, resolution may require official Extended documentation.
  • Deadline non-launch: If Extended has not launched a publicly tradable token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all eight markets resolve to No regardless of any subsequent launch.
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Extended's token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates prediction market data for this event across Polymarket and Predict, tracking whether a token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold exactly one day after its launch. It displays real-time odds, historical price movements, and cumulative trading volume of $6,678,947 across both platforms. This cross-platform view reveals market consensus on post-launch valuation momentum, helping traders and analysts gauge collective expectations for the asset's initial market reception and investor appetite.

Prediction market odds reflect forward-looking consensus on whether FDV will breach the threshold within 24 hours of launch, independent of current spot prices. These odds incorporate tokenomics, team credibility, market conditions, and hype cycles that may not be priced into pre-launch spot valuations. The market's implied probability often diverges from traditional valuation models because it captures binary outcome expectations rather than continuous price discovery, making it a distinct signal of whether the asset will achieve specific valuation milestones versus general price direction.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict serve different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, creating pricing inefficiencies. Polymarket shows 61.5% odds while Predict reflects 56.7%, a spread of 4.8 percentage points. Differences arise from varying user bases, risk tolerances, and information access; lower liquidity on one platform may amplify volatility or stale pricing. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms can persist due to withdrawal friction, regulatory uncertainty, or platform-specific trading costs that discourage rapid convergence.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027, capturing the token's fully diluted valuation exactly one day after its official launch timestamp. Resolution hinges on verifiable FDV data from the launch moment, typically derived from on-chain metrics, official project announcements, or recognized data providers. The binary outcome depends solely on whether FDV crosses the specified threshold at that precise 24-hour mark, making timing and data accuracy critical to settlement.

Major catalysts include project announcements, exchange listings, influencer endorsements, and macroeconomic shifts affecting crypto sentiment. Token supply details, vesting schedules, and team credibility updates can reshape FDV expectations. Market-wide volatility, competing launches, or regulatory news may dampen or amplify demand. Social media momentum, early trading volume on DEXs, and institutional interest signals all influence whether the asset reaches the FDV threshold within its first 24 hours. Pre-launch hype and actual liquidity conditions at launch are the strongest near-term drivers.