TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$84,940,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,022,755

334,261

Markets across

33,310

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,574

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Bitcoin above ___ on August 4?
opinion
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin above ___ on August 4?

Total volume:
$3,466,230
Volume 24h:
$11,253
24%
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$464,872
1%

Below $60,000.00

 - Kalshi

Below $60,000.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 04d:13h:42m

Will BTC trimmed mean be below $60000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?

1%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 1¢ buys you 10,000 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $10,000 | Net Profit: $9,900 Multiplier: 100.00x | ROI: 9,900% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Below $60,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$434,616
1%
53%
$200,412
4d 13h 42m
active
kalshi

Below $57,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$168,341
0.07%
16%
$72,211
4d 13h 42m
active
kalshi

Below $55,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$120,484
0.06%
16%
$65,129
4d 13h 42m
active
kalshi

Below $52,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$97,397
0%
14%
$51,159
4d 13h 42m
active
kalshi

Below $50,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$83,519
0%
23%
$44,195
4d 13h 42m
active
kalshi

Below $47,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$28,685
15%
86%
$18,328
4d 13h 42m
active
kalshi

Below $45,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$9,662
11%
22%
$6,724
4d 13h 42m
active
kalshi

Below $42,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$7,585
35%
88%
$6,713
4d 13h 42m
active
polymarket

62,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$438,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
opinion

62,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

60,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$289,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
opinion

60,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

58,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$258,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
opinion

58,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

64,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$235,961
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
opinion

64,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

54,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$180,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
opinion

54,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

56,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$148,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
opinion

56,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

66,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$375,663
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

66,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$228,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
opinion

70,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

68,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$185,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This group of markets focuses on whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed specific thresholds on August 4th. Each market has a different threshold, ranging from $54,000 to $74,000, and resolves based on the Bitcoin price at a specific time on that date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets resolve based on the Bitcoin price at noon ET on August 4th using Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close pricePrimary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon ET on August 4th

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to 'Yes' if Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon ET on August 4th is higher than the specified threshold
  • Market resolves to 'No' if the price is equal to or below the specified threshold

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • price exactly at threshold: Market resolves to 'No' if the price is exactly at the threshold
  • market closure: If Binance is unavailable at the specified time, the most recent available price before noon ET will be used
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes at noon ET on August 4thOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for Bitcoin over the entire month of August 2026, resolving to Yes if the price ever falls below any specified level. For each market, the settlement mechanism continuously monitors Bitcoin's price on a minute-by-minute basis from issuance through August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. At every minute, a trimmed mean is calculated by removing the top and bottom 20% of price data points and averaging the remaining values, mitigating the influence of extreme volatility. If this adjusted price for any single minute falls below the market's threshold, that market resolves to Yes. Should CF Benchmarks fail to provide complete or accurate data by the expiration time, all affected markets resolve to No. The Exchange will clarify which Bitcoin version or ticker applies when necessary. The structure allows for multiple simultaneous thresholds, each independently assessed against the same methodology.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.