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$114.6b

24H VOL:

$136,531,341

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,197,913,311

339,027

Markets across

34,284

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
kalshi
polymarket

August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)

Total volume:
$38,458
Volume 24h:
$1,600
55%
Liquidity:
$5,246
9%
Open interest:
$10,807
1%

1.30001 or above

 - Kalshi

1.30001 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 17, 2026

Time left: 20d:15h:39m

Aug 2026 temperature increase?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 144% 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

1.30001 or above

Trade
90%
Yes 95¢No 10¢
5¢
N/A
$7,562
2%
37%
$4,164
2w 6d 15h
active
polymarket

1.38–1.41ºC

Trade
67%
6%
Yes 70¢No 36¢
6¢
$519
$1,413
23%
0%
N/A
5d 1h 38m
active
polymarket

1.42–1.45ºC

Trade
21%
4%
Yes 22¢No 80¢
2¢
$966
$4,715
30%
936%
N/A
5d 1h 38m
active
kalshi

1.24 to 1.30

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
N/A
$5,480
0.07%
31%
$3,467
2w 6d 15h
active
polymarket

>1.45ºC

Trade
6%
Yes 9.8¢No 98.2¢
8¢
$790
$587
0%
720%
N/A
5d 1h 38m
active
polymarket

1.34–1.37ºC

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
$936
$1,947
0%
120%
N/A
5d 1h 38m
active
kalshi

1.04 to 1.09

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,545
0%
0.59%
$529
2w 6d 15h
active
polymarket

1.30–1.33ºC

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99¢
0.2¢
$917
$1,039
9%
114%
N/A
5d 1h 38m
active
kalshi

1.10 to 1.16

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,914
0%
8%
$665
2w 6d 15h
active
kalshi

1.17 to 1.23

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,522
0.02%
0.07%
$616
2w 6d 15h
active
kalshi

1.02999 or below

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,367
0%
8%
$1,366
2w 6d 15h
active
polymarket

<1.30ºC

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,119
$366
0%
1,595%
N/A
5d 1h 38m
active
Total markets: 12

Description

This event group tracks whether the global temperature increase in August 2026, as measured by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, will fall within specific ranges. The markets are designed to resolve based on the temperature anomaly reported by NASA for that month.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms resolve based on the same temperature index and thresholds, with consistent data sources and fallback rules.Primary resolution logic: NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index dataset (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the anomaly value reported for August 2026 in NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index.
  • If NASA data is unavailable by October 1, 2026, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.
  • Each market corresponds to a specific temperature range, and the anomaly value determines the resolution.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Revision: If NASA revises the August 2026 anomaly after initial release, the revised value will be used for resolution.
  • No Data by Deadline: If no data is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.
Timing: The market resolves once NASA releases the August 2026 anomaly data, or by October 1, 2026, if no data is available.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the Land Ocean-Temperature Index value for August 2026, with six distinct numerical ranges determining the outcome. Regardless of where the index falls—whether below 1.03, between 1.04 and 1.09, between 1.10 and 1.16, between 1.17 and 1.23, between 1.24 and 1.30, or above 1.30—the market will resolve to Yes. This structure ensures that every potential index value leads to the same outcome, making the event effectively a binary resolution based on the index's existence within the defined measurement period.