TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$3,213,788
Volume 24h:
$480
95%
Liquidity:
$892,240
2%
Open interest:
$61,076N/A

$200M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?

36%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 36¢ buys you 278 shares | Odds: 36% Total Payout: $278 | Net Profit: $178 Multiplier: 2.78x | ROI: 178% | APY: 113% 491 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$200M

Trade
36%
1%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$17,562
$113,269
0.14%
0.9%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$200M

Trade
30%
Yes 30.8¢No 70.9¢
1.7¢
$43,885
$119,067
0%
0.14%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
33%
Yes 33.4¢No 68¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 1.7¢
polymarket

$400M

Trade
30%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
$22,721
$60,155
0%
3%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$400M

Trade
29%
Yes 29¢No 71.9¢
0.9¢
$52,180
$328,361
0.03%
0.6%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
29.5%
Yes 29.5¢No 71.4¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

$600M

Trade
22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
$22,278
$36,891
0%
2%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$600M

Trade
21%
Yes 22.1¢No 80.2¢
2.3¢
$46,954
$264,689
0%
6%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
21.5%
Yes 22.1¢No 79.6¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 2.3¢
polymarket

$800M

Trade
14%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
$24,079
$55,199
0%
4%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$800M

Trade
13%
Yes 13.7¢No 87¢
0.7¢
$44,772
$408,931
0%
0.19%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
13.5%
Yes 13.9¢No 87¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

$1B

Trade
13%
2%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
2¢
$21,370
$19,074
0%
3%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$1B

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 89.7¢
0.7¢
$33,441
$76,837
0%
3%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
12%
Yes 12.5¢No 88.9¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 2¢
predict

$1.5B

Trade
12%
Yes 13.4¢No 89¢
2.4¢
$58,089
$754,353
0.03%
1%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

$1.5B

Trade
12%
Yes 14¢No 90¢
4¢
$12,605
$4,625
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
12%
Yes 13.7¢No 89.5¢
Avg: 3.2¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

$2B

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
$16,759
$4,470
0%
0.79%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$2B

Trade
7%
Yes 7.2¢No 92.9¢
0.1¢
$98,235
$254,037
0%
0.1%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7.5%
Yes 8.1¢No 93¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

$2.5B

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 7.6¢No 95.6¢
3.2¢
$14,850
$9,065
0.13%
2%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$2.5B

Trade
5%
Yes 5.3¢No 95.7¢
1¢
$169,606
$245,184
0%
2%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
5.5%
Yes 6.5¢No 95.6¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 3.2¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
5%
Yes 4.9¢No 95.2¢
0.1¢
$22,319
$154,663
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

$3B

Trade
5%
Yes 4.8¢No 95.8¢
0.6¢
$170,536
$304,916
0%
0.11%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
5%
Yes 4.9¢No 95.5¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.6¢
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group tracks whether Abstract's governance token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds on the day following its public launch. The markets span FDV targets from $200M to $3B, with resolution determined by multiplying total token supply by the most liquid available price at exactly 4:00 PM ET on launch day plus one calendar day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical FDV calculation methodology, timing definition, launch criteria, and deadline, with no material divergences in resolution logic.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Abstract governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, combined with official total token supply figures.

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV = Total Token Supply × Token Price (from most liquid source)
  • Resolution Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following token launch
  • Launch Criteria: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable
  • Each threshold market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified amount, No otherwise
  • Fallback: If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple Price Sources: If multiple exchanges or venues have different prices at 4:00 PM ET, the most liquid source (highest trading volume) determines the price used in FDV calculation.
  • Token Supply Ambiguity: Total token supply must be clearly defined and verifiable from official Abstract sources; if disputed, resolution uses the supply figure from the primary launch announcement.
  • Launch Timing Ambiguity: If token becomes transferable at different times across venues, the earliest public transferability timestamp marks the launch date for purposes of calculating the 1-day-after resolution window.
  • Exchange Halts or Delisting: If the most liquid venue halts trading before 4:00 PM ET on resolution day, the next most liquid available source is used; if no liquid source exists, resolution is delayed until liquidity returns or market is cancelled.
  • No Launch Before Deadline: If Abstract does not launch a publicly transferable and tradable token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No regardless of FDV threshold.
Timing: Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following the date Abstract's governance token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The Abstract FDV dashboard aggregates prediction market odds across Polymarket and Predict, tracking whether Abstract's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of launch. The dashboard displays real-time consensus pricing, total group volume of $3,178,488 across all tracked outcomes, and 24-hour volume of $3,580. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, traders gain a cross-market view of expected Abstract valuations at launch, helping identify which FDV milestones the market considers most likely and where liquidity concentrates.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregate trader expectations of Abstract's post-launch valuation, independent of current spot prices or pre-launch valuations. These odds synthesize information about tokenomics, market sentiment, and comparable crypto launches. Unlike spot prices, which respond to real-time supply and demand, prediction market odds lock in beliefs about a specific future event—Abstract's FDV one day after launch. Comparing the two reveals whether markets expect Abstract to outperform or underperform relative to pre-launch pricing signals and broader crypto market conditions.

Polymarket and Predict may show different odds due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and trading incentives. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket currently shows 35.5% chance for its top outcome, while Predict shows 30.0%, a spread of 5.5 percentage points. Differences arise from distinct fee structures, market-maker participation, regional trader preferences, and timing of large orders. Arbitrage opportunities may emerge when spreads widen, incentivizing traders to balance prices across platforms over time.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution depends on Abstract's actual fully diluted valuation measured exactly one day after its official launch. The outcome is binary: either Abstract's FDV exceeds the specified threshold at that moment, or it does not. Traders should monitor Abstract's launch announcement and official tokenomics to confirm the precise timing and valuation methodology used for settlement.

Key catalysts include Abstract's official launch date announcement, tokenomics and supply details, major exchange listings or partnerships, broader crypto market rallies or downturns, and competitor developments in the Abstract ecosystem. Regulatory clarity affecting crypto valuations, macroeconomic shifts, and sentiment around layer-2 or application-chain solutions also influence odds. Real-time updates on Abstract's developer activity, community growth, and pre-launch fundraising rounds can shift trader expectations about post-launch demand and valuation multiples.