TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$136,531,341

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,197,913,311

339,027

Markets across

34,284

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
kalshi
polymarket

2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Total volume:
$90,790
Volume 24h:
$1,287
29%
Liquidity:
$2,267
12%
Open interest:
$60,623
0.87%

Hottest ever

 - Kalshi

Hottest ever - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 8, 2026

Time left: 11d:15h:32m

Will Aug 2026 be the hottest Aug ever?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 152% 11 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hottest ever

Trade
98%
2%
Yes 97¢No 5¢
2¢
N/A
$88,539
1%
41%
$60,623
1w 4d 15h
active
polymarket

1st hottest

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 3.7¢
2.7¢
$896
$758
0.44%
14%
N/A
3d 1h 32m
active
polymarket

4th or lower

Trade
2%
Yes 3.5¢No 99¢
2.5¢
$479
$405
0%
68%
N/A
3d 1h 32m
active
polymarket

2nd hottest

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$723
$563
0%
19%
N/A
3d 1h 32m
active
polymarket

3rd hottest

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$168
$524
3%
57%
N/A
3d 1h 32m
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group concerns whether August 2026 will rank as the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest August on record globally, based on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index as the primary resolution source, with consistent tie-handling rules and fallbacks for data unavailability.Primary resolution logic: NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus all previous Augusts.
  • If August 2026 ties for a rank (1st, 2nd, or 3rd), it qualifies for that bracket.
  • If NASA data for August 2026 is unavailable by September 30, 2026, a consensus of credible sources will be used.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie for Rank: If August 2026 ties with another year for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, it qualifies for that rank bracket.
  • Data Unavailability: If NASA data is unavailable by September 30, 2026, credible sources will determine the resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs after September 30, 2026, when NASA data or consensus sources can confirm August 2026’s ranking.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Kalshi

If Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever, then the market resolves to Yes.