TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?

Total volume:
$571,442
Volume 24h:
$2,481
32%
Liquidity:
$1,550
68%
Open interest:
$19,603
6%

5.5 or above

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5.4999 by Dec 31, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 6% Illiquid market 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.5 or above

Trade
99%
19%
Yes 100¢No 11¢
11¢
N/A
$6,618
5%
23%
$2,669
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑5.5

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
99.1%
Yes 100¢No 5.5¢
Avg: 11¢Max: 11¢
kalshi

5.75 or above

Trade
63%
2%
Yes 69¢No 37¢
6¢
N/A
$4,238
9%
37%
$1,848
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑5.75

Trade
51%
2%
Yes 69¢No 67¢
36¢
$193
$644
39%
12,775%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
61.4%
Yes 69¢No 52¢
Avg: 21¢Max: 36¢
polymarket

↓3.75

Trade
44%
3%
Yes 88.1¢No 99.4¢
87.5¢
$35
$149
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓4.5

Trade
44%
8%
Yes 79¢No 92¢
71¢
$140
$153
142%
2,950%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑6.25

Trade
41%
2%
Yes 75¢No 94¢
69¢
$75
$152
0%
18%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6.25 or above

Trade
14%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$109
0%
0%
$80
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
40.5%
Yes 87.5¢No 97¢
Avg: 84.5¢Max: 100¢
kalshi

6 or above

Trade
34%
23%
Yes 40¢No 65¢
5¢
N/A
$32,288
1%
1%
$6,993
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑6

Trade
33%
3%
Yes 46¢No 80¢
26¢
$180
$238
0%
24%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
34%
Yes 43¢No 72.5¢
Avg: 15.5¢Max: 26¢
polymarket

↓4

Trade
32%
14%
Yes 62¢No 98¢
60¢
$195
$169
4%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓4.25

Trade
17%
5%
Yes 31¢No 97¢
28¢
$231
$235
0%
457%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑6.5

Trade
47%
4%
Yes 88¢No 94¢
82¢
$68
$133
0%
64%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

6.5 or above

Trade
12%
Yes 11¢No 96¢
7¢
N/A
$127,002
0.62%
0.62%
$2,306
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12%
Yes 49.5¢No 95¢
Avg: 44.5¢Max: 82¢
polymarket

↑7.25

Trade
15%
21%
Yes 28.7¢No 99.1¢
27.8¢
$122
$130
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

7.25 or above

Trade
11%
Yes 17¢No 100¢
17¢
N/A
$57,076
0%
0%
$2,285
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
11%
Yes 22.8¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 22.4¢Max: 27.8¢
kalshi

7 or above

Trade
12%
Yes 97¢No 100¢
97¢
N/A
$268,103
0%
0.05%
$2,251
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑7

Trade
8%
Yes 16.4¢No 99.7¢
16.1¢
$240
$649
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.4%
Yes 56.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 56.6¢Max: 97¢
kalshi

6.75 or above

Trade
8%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$72,378
0%
0%
$755
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑6.75

Trade
6%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
$71
$144
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 7¢
kalshi

5 or above

View
97%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
$207
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

5.25 or above

View
57%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
$210
2mo 6d
Yes
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the USD/BRL exchange rate reaching 5.4999 before December 31, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket is 59.0% that it will. This aggregated view uses resolution data from a “Yes” outcome if the USD/BRL rises above 7.2499 before the resolution date. Traders are betting on the future value of the Brazilian Real relative to the US Dollar, and market participants should watch the USD/BRL exchange rate as it approaches the December 31, 2026 deadline to see if it will meet the target.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket specifies a price source (Investing.com hourly high) and candle timeframe, while Kalshi does not, leading to potential discrepancies in resolution.Hero tip: Consider the difference in resolution criteria when trading. Polymarket's reliance on the hourly high may make it more difficult to resolve 'Yes' compared to Kalshi's simpler 'above' threshold.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Yes' if the Investing.com hourly high price reaches or exceeds the target price by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Uses a specific data source and timeframe.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the USD/BRL rises above the target level at any point before December 31, 2026. Does not specify a data source or timeframe.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/BRL hourly candle for an hour between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/BRL hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/BRL Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-brl-chart).

Kalshi

The event establishes a series of escalating thresholds for USD/BRL exchange rate appreciation throughout 2026. Each threshold represents a specific exchange rate level, ranging from 4.9999 to 7.2499. Resolution to Yes occurs if the USD/BRL rate rises above any of these thresholds at any point before December 31, 2026. The thresholds are independent; crossing one threshold satisfies that market's resolution criterion regardless of whether higher thresholds are subsequently reached or whether the rate later declines. The determination is based on the spot exchange rate achieving the specified level at any moment during the evaluation period, with no requirement for sustained duration at that level.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks predictions on whether the USD/BRL exchange rate will reach a specified level by the end of 2026. Currently, there's a consensus view forming around potential movements in the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar. The combined volume across both platforms is $571,442, indicating significant interest in this financial market. Traders on these platforms are expressing their beliefs about the future value of the USD/BRL, offering a forward-looking perspective on this key exchange rate. The 24-hour volume is $2,547.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, aggregating diverse perspectives on the future USD/BRL exchange rate. This can differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which may be influenced by specific institutional biases or methodologies. While analyst reports provide structured research, this market allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment. Comparing the implied probability from this market to consensus analyst estimates can reveal discrepancies and potentially identify undervalued or overvalued scenarios. It’s a useful data point for anyone following the Brazilian Real.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest USD/BRL exchange rate recorded during the calendar year 2026, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders will be able to see the final outcome based on this publicly available data. The market’s success depends on the accuracy and availability of this information, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.

Several factors could significantly impact the USD/BRL exchange rate and, consequently, this market. Major economic announcements from both the United States and Brazil, such as interest rate decisions or GDP growth figures, are key catalysts. Geopolitical events, shifts in global risk sentiment, and changes in commodity prices (particularly oil, given Brazil’s role as a producer) can also exert influence. Unexpected political developments within Brazil, or changes in US monetary policy, could trigger substantial market movements. Monitoring these events is crucial for anyone trading in this market.