TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
limitless
polymarket
predict

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Total volume:
$580,964
Volume 24h:
$4,548
35%
Liquidity:
$101,102
9%
Open interest:
$66,025N/A

1.8T+

all

3 markets

Predict

Limitless

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

72%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 85.6¢ buys you 117 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $117 | Net Profit: $17 Multiplier: 1.17x | ROI: 17% | APY: 14% 430 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

1.8T+

Trade
72%
16%
Yes 85.6¢No 42.1¢
27.7¢
$32,828
$3,099
0.01%
10%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

1.8T+

Trade
66%
Yes 66¢No 34¢
15¢
N/A
$35
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

1.8T+

Trade
66%
8%
Yes 71¢No 40¢
11¢
$3,267
$300,962
0.87%
9%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
65.5%
Yes 74.2¢No 38.7¢
Avg: 17.9¢Max: 27.7¢
limitless

1.5–1.8T

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
99.6¢
N/A
$343
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

1.5–1.8T

Trade
25%
Yes 32.6¢No 82.6¢
15.2¢
$6,469
$87,412
0.05%
4%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

1.5–1.8T

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
25%
Yes 41.3¢No 66.3¢
Avg: 40.3¢Max: 99.6¢
limitless

1.2–1.5T

Trade
50%
Yes 50.1¢No 50¢
99.5¢
N/A
$53
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

1.2–1.5T

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 8.7¢No 97.5¢
6.2¢
$9,698
$45,959
0.38%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

1.2–1.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.6%
Yes 29.4¢No 73.8¢
Avg: 37.2¢Max: 99.5¢
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
4%
Yes 5.2¢No 97¢
2.2¢
$9,571
$58,681
0%
0.36%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.1%
Yes 5.2¢No 97¢
Avg: 4.1¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

<0.6T

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.3¢
0.7¢
$10,423
$22,854
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

<0.6T

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢
0.8¢
N/A
$100
0%
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

<0.6T

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 6¢
limitless

0.9–1.2T

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
99.6¢
N/A
$182
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

0.9–1.2T

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.7¢
1.1¢
$12,445
$30,683
1%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

0.9–1.2T

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.9%
Yes 25.7¢No 74.9¢
Avg: 35.6¢Max: 99.6¢
limitless

0.6–0.9T

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢
0.8¢
N/A
$353
0%
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

0.6–0.9T

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$16,401
$30,248
1%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

0.6–0.9T

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 6¢
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks whether Anthropic's market capitalization at the close of its first trading day will fall within specific ranges, or if no IPO will occur by December 31, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution logic for Anthropic's IPO market cap brackets and No IPO outcome.Primary resolution logic: Primary exchange’s official listing page, with alternative reliable sources as backup

Core resolution logic:

  • Market capitalization is calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day
  • If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, all markets resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027"
  • If the market cap falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket
  • Resolution uses the primary exchange’s official listing page; alternative reliable sources are used if necessary
  • For interrupted trading sessions, use the official closing price of the abbreviated session or the next trading day’s closing price

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Bracket Boundary: If market cap falls exactly between two brackets, resolve to the higher range bracket
  • Trading Interruption: Use official closing price of abbreviated session or next trading day’s closing price if first day is interrupted
Timing: Resolution occurs after the close of Anthropic's first trading day, or December 31, 2027 if no IPO occursOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Predict

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Limitless

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Limitless, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the closing market cap of Anthropic following its initial public offering. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $580,964, with $3,518 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects significant interest in predicting the valuation of this leading artificial intelligence company. The Anthropic IPO market aggregates data from both venues to provide a comprehensive overview of trader sentiment. Polymarket currently favors Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets): 1.8T+ at 65.5%, while Limitless also leans toward Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets): 1.8T+ at 66.0%.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by firm biases or incentives, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to more accurate predictions, particularly when complex factors are at play. While analyst estimates for Anthropic’s IPO valuation vary, the collective prediction in this market offers a real-time assessment of potential outcomes. It’s important to note that both approaches have their strengths, and comparing them can offer a more nuanced understanding of the potential IPO valuation.

Prices on Polymarket and Limitless for the Anthropic IPO market can differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing levels of participation and information available to traders on each platform can lead to variations in perceived probabilities. The spread between the two platforms is currently 0.5. These differences aren’t necessarily indicative of disagreement on the underlying outcome, but rather reflect the unique dynamics of each individual market. This market aims to provide a consolidated view despite these potential discrepancies.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the closing market capitalization of Anthropic on its IPO day, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. The final price will be determined by publicly available information and will reflect the market’s assessment of the company’s value at the time of its initial public offering. Traders should monitor news and financial data sources leading up to the resolution date for updates on the IPO process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major announcements regarding Anthropic’s financial performance, key partnerships, or regulatory approvals could all impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the market price. Broader economic conditions, such as changes in interest rates or overall market volatility, could also play a role. Furthermore, news related to competitors in the AI space or shifts in the IPO landscape could influence trading activity in this market. Any information that alters the perceived future prospects of Anthropic has the potential to shift the odds.