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Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
predict
polymarket
limitless

What will be Anthropic's market cap at IPO closing by December 31, 2027?

Total volume:
$374,984
Volume 24h:
$3,784
52%
Liquidity:
$329,775
5%
Open interest:
$68,760N/A

1.8T+

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

87%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 87.9¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% | APY: 10% 491 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

1.8T+

Trade
87%
3%
Yes 87.9¢No 15¢
2.9¢
$49,555
$390
248%
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

1.8T+

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 86¢No 15¢
1¢
$13,249
$179,946
0.43%
11%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
limitless

1.8T+

Trade
85%
1%
Yes 85.5¢No 14.6¢
3.1¢
N/A
$4
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
86%
Yes 86.5¢No 14.9¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3.1¢
polymarket

1.5–1.8T

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 9.8¢No 90.5¢
0.3¢
$10,269
$39,530
0.77%
18%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
limitless

1.5–1.8T

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 9.7¢No 90.4¢
2.1¢
N/A
$59
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

1.5–1.8T

Trade
N/A
N/A
52.7¢
$29,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
10%
Yes 9.8¢No 90.5¢
Avg: 18.4¢Max: 52.7¢
limitless

0.6–0.9T

Trade
3%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.4¢
0.6¢
N/A
$253
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

0.6–0.9T

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 98.6¢
0.1¢
$20,229
$25,629
1%
10%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

0.6–0.9T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 98.3¢
1.3¢
$13,082
$50,086
2%
9%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
limitless

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,946
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 3¢No 98.3¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2.7¢
limitless

0.9–1.2T

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.1¢
3.5¢
N/A
$182
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

0.9–1.2T

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.5¢
1.2¢
$16,449
$25,063
1%
12%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

0.9–1.2T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 3.5¢
limitless

<0.6T

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢
2.1¢
N/A
$100
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

<0.6T

Trade
1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.3¢
1.1¢
$16,384
$20,306
2%
15%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

<0.6T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,737
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 2.1¢
limitless

1.2–1.5T

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢
2.2¢
N/A
$11
0%
0%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

1.2–1.5T

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.3¢
0.8¢
$11,946
$33,423
0.8%
11%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
predict

1.2–1.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,689
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 4mo
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2.2¢
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks the closing market capitalization of Anthropic following its initial public offering, measured across defined valuation brackets. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Limitless, the consensus shows the $0.6–0.9 trillion bracket and the $0.9–1.2 trillion bracket each at 50.0%, reflecting equal probability between these two middle-range outcomes. Resolution will be determined by the primary exchange official listing page or a reliable third-party financial data provider, based on the closing share price and shares outstanding from the first trading day. Watch for Anthropic's IPO announcement and pricing details, as these will be critical signals ahead of the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical market cap calculation methodology, boundary rules (exact values round up), IPO deadline, and official exchange data hierarchy with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Primary exchange official listing page (e.g., NYSE or NASDAQ); reliable third-party financial data provider if official page does not display market cap figure.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market cap = shares outstanding × closing share price on Anthropic's first trading day
  • Resolution occurs at the official closing price of the first full or abbreviated trading session
  • If exact boundary value (e.g., exactly $0.9T), resolve to the higher bracket
  • If no IPO by December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, all bracket markets resolve to 'No IPO by December 31, 2027'
  • Trading interruptions (circuit breaker, half-day) use that session's official close; if unavailable, next trading day with official close is treated as IPO day

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Boundary Value: If closing market cap falls exactly on a bracket boundary (e.g., $0.9T, $1.2T, $1.5T, $1.8T), the market resolves to the higher bracket per explicit rule.
  • Trading Session Interruption: If IPO day's normal session is interrupted (circuit breaker, early close), use the abbreviated session's official closing price. If no official close is published for that session, use the next trading day's official close and treat it as the IPO day for resolution purposes.
  • No IPO by Deadline: If Anthropic does not IPO by December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, all bracket markets (including <0.6T, 0.6–0.9T, etc.) resolve to 'No IPO by December 31, 2027'.
  • Missing Official Market Cap Data: If the primary exchange's official listing page does not display market cap, resolution uses another reliable source (e.g., Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, SEC filings cross-referenced with closing price).
  • Currency and Denomination: Market cap is expressed in USD trillions (T). All bracket thresholds ($0.6T, $0.9T, $1.2T, $1.5T, $1.8T) are denominated in USD.
Timing: Resolution occurs on or shortly after Anthropic's first official trading day close (or next trading day if session is interrupted and no official close is published). Deadline for IPO occurrence is December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Predict

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Limitless

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds for Anthropic's closing market capitalization on its IPO day across Polymarket and Predict. It tracks whether Anthropic's valuation will fall into middle-bracket ranges, capturing consensus probability across decentralized and regulated prediction platforms. The tracker displays current implied odds, historical price movement, and cumulative trading volume to help participants monitor how the market is pricing Anthropic's IPO valuation relative to analyst expectations and comparable AI company debuts.

Prediction market participants on Polymarket and Predict are pricing Anthropic's IPO valuation based on real-time information, investor sentiment, and comparable company multiples. These odds often diverge from traditional equity research forecasts because markets incorporate forward-looking bets and reflect the collective conviction of active traders. Analyst reports typically rely on historical financials and DCF models, while prediction markets weight recent developments, competitive positioning, and macroeconomic conditions. Comparing the two reveals whether the street is more or less bullish than market participants on Anthropic's opening valuation.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict may price Anthropic's IPO market cap differently due to variations in liquidity, user demographics, and market microstructure. Polymarket currently shows 85.5% for its top outcome, while Predict reflects 86.5%, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Differences arise from distinct fee structures, order-book depth, regulatory frameworks, and the timing of large trades. Lower liquidity on one platform can amplify price swings, while geographic and institutional participation patterns also shape how each market weights Anthropic's valuation scenarios.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028, marking the deadline for Anthropic's IPO closing valuation to be finalized and verified. Resolution hinges on the official market capitalization reported at the end of the IPO's first trading day, determining which middle-bracket range Anthropic's valuation falls into. Participants should monitor regulatory filings, underwriter announcements, and real-time trading data as the event date approaches to assess the likelihood of each outcome bracket.

Key catalysts include Anthropic's updated financial disclosures, competitive announcements from OpenAI or other AI labs, macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, and broader sentiment toward generative AI startups. Regulatory developments, major product launches, or partnerships could reshape investor appetite for Anthropic's shares. Market-wide corrections or rallies in comparable AI companies will influence opening-day momentum. Additionally, changes in interest rates, venture capital funding trends, and geopolitical events affecting AI development may alter the perceived risk and growth profile underlying Anthropic's IPO valuation.