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335,495

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What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?
kalshi
polymarket

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

Dec 23, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,892,535
Volume 24h:
$76,682
956%
Liquidity:
$884
0%
Open interest:
$3,021,458
2%

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December?

 - Polymarket

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December?

82%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 82¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% | APY: 78% Low liquidity 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December?

Trade
82%
Yes 82¢No 18¢
—
$105
$10
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

>$36,000

Trade
30%
Yes 30¢No 96.9¢
—
$245
$42
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

33,000.01 or above

Trade
17%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
2¢
N/A
$350,044
0.29%
2%
$140,135
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

30,500 to 30,999.99

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 97¢
5¢
N/A
$89,505
22%
31%
$75,078
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

31,500 to 31,999.99

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
N/A
$108,290
0.37%
3%
$79,048
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

31,000 to 31,499.99

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 97¢
4¢
N/A
$97,629
14%
17%
$76,604
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

30,000 to 30,499.99

Trade
6%
Yes 11¢No 97¢
8¢
N/A
$90,932
24%
26%
$78,989
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

32,000 to 32,499.99

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$120,074
0.22%
2%
$79,237
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

32,500 to 33,000

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$139,393
0.46%
4%
$77,530
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

28,500 to 28,999.99

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$90,735
31%
31%
$73,127
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

29,000 to 29,499.99

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$84,720
0.01%
7%
$61,666
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

29,500 to 29,999.99

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$79,822
0.29%
0.47%
$55,747
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

18,999.99 or below

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$1,251,102
0.03%
0.26%
$1,100,774
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

25,500 to 25,999.99

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$116,362
0.16%
0.58%
$57,311
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

27,500 to 27,999.99

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$73,932
0.54%
3%
$66,056
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

28,000 to 28,499.99

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$69,080
0%
0%
$46,904
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

27,000 to 27,499.99

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$68,646
7%
7%
$58,582
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

26,000 to 26,499.99

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$95,522
0.44%
2%
$65,691
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

25,000 to 25,499.99

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$93,759
0.11%
7%
$71,592
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

24,500 to 24,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$76,686
0%
1%
$67,767
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

19,000 to 19,499.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$75,417
0%
0%
$64,641
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

26,500 to 26,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$73,695
0%
3%
$58,599
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

22,500 to 22,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$71,795
0%
1%
$60,243
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

21,500 to 21,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$62,861
0%
2%
$58,904
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

20,500 to 20,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$62,751
0%
0%
$59,287
4mo 6d
active
Total markets: 25 of 38

Description

These markets collectively assess where the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index will close on the final trading day of December 2026 at 4pm EST. Polymarket offers 10 specific price-range brackets spanning <$23,500 to >$36,000, while Kalshi provides 30 granular Yes/No conditions covering nearly identical ranges in $500 increments. Both platforms resolve based on the official closing price published for that trading session.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: all 30 conditions resolve to YES, making it impossible for the market to ever resolve NO. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive price brackets that collectively cover the full range, creating two fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market — it is logically unresolvable as written. Every possible NDX closing price on Dec 31, 2026 triggers a YES resolution. On Polymarket, your outcome depends entirely on which bracket you select; pick the bracket matching your NDX price forecast and understand that exactly one will resolve YES.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All 30 conditions resolve to YES. Conditions 1-2 cover above 33000 and below 19000; conditions 3-30 cover every 500-point bracket from 19000 to 33000. This leaves no outcome that resolves NO. The market is logically broken and unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Ten mutually exclusive price brackets, each resolving independently: <23500, 23500-25000, 25000-26500, 26500-28500, 28500-30500, 30500-33000, 33000-36000, and >36000. Exactly one bracket will contain the final NDX closing price on Dec 31, 2026, and only that market resolves YES. Resolution source is Yahoo Finance historical close price.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 19000 and 19499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 19500 and 19999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 20000 and 20499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 20500 and 20999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 21000 and 21499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 21500 and 21999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 22000 and 22499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 22500 and 22999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 23000 and 23499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 23500 and 23999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 24000 and 24499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 24500 and 24999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 25000 and 25499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 25500 and 25999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 26000 and 26499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 26500 and 26999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27000 and 27499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27500 and 27999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 28000 and 28499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 28500 and 28999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 29000 and 29499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 29500 and 29999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 30000 and 30499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 30500 and 30999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 31000 and 31499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 31500 and 31999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 32000 and 32499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 32500 and 33000, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 33000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Odds & Prediction Markets dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for where the Nasdaq-100 will close on December 31, 2026. The dashboard displays current implied probabilities for key price thresholds, historical price charts showing how odds have shifted over time, and live $1,225 in 24-hour volume alongside total group volume of $3,784,220. Traders use this data to monitor consensus expectations and identify shifting sentiment about year-end Nasdaq-100 levels.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst price targets. While Wall Street equity strategists typically publish year-end Nasdaq-100 forecasts based on earnings models and macroeconomic assumptions, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment from thousands of participants with direct financial incentives. Markets tend to price in tail risks and volatility that analyst consensus may underweight, making them a complementary signal to formal research estimates for gauging institutional and retail expectations.

On Kalshi, the Nasdaq-100 year-end close is priced through binary outcome contracts tied to specific price levels. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders buy or sell shares representing whether the index will close above or below key thresholds—such as 19,000—with odds reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. Contract prices range from 0 to 100 cents, where higher prices indicate stronger conviction that an outcome will occur. Liquidity and trading volume concentrate around the most actively traded strike levels, allowing traders to express precise views on where the Nasdaq-100 will settle.

The Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026 market will respond to major macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and earnings revisions for mega-cap technology and growth stocks that dominate the index. Key catalysts include inflation reports, employment data, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments that affect risk appetite. Corporate earnings surprises, AI adoption trends, regulatory actions on big tech, and shifts in bond yields will also drive trader positioning. Seasonal patterns, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and technical levels near support and resistance can amplify volatility as the resolution date approaches.