TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?
Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at <$23,500 in December?
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Description
These markets collectively assess where the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index will close on the final trading day of December 2026 at 4pm EST. Polymarket offers 10 specific price-range brackets spanning <$23,500 to >$36,000, while Kalshi provides 30 granular Yes/No conditions covering nearly identical ranges in $500 increments. Both platforms resolve based on the official closing price published for that trading session.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: all 30 conditions resolve to YES, making it impossible for the market to ever resolve NO. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive price brackets that collectively cover the full range, creating two fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market — it is logically unresolvable as written. Every possible NDX closing price on Dec 31, 2026 triggers a YES resolution. On Polymarket, your outcome depends entirely on which bracket you select; pick the bracket matching your NDX price forecast and understand that exactly one will resolve YES.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
All 30 conditions resolve to YES. Conditions 1-2 cover above 33000 and below 19000; conditions 3-30 cover every 500-point bracket from 19000 to 33000. This leaves no outcome that resolves NO. The market is logically broken and unresolvable.Polymarket:
Ten mutually exclusive price brackets, each resolving independently: <23500, 23500-25000, 25000-26500, 26500-28500, 28500-30500, 30500-33000, 33000-36000, and >36000. Exactly one bracket will contain the final NDX closing price on Dec 31, 2026, and only that market resolves YES. Resolution source is Yahoo Finance historical close price.
Kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 19000 and 19499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 19500 and 19999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 20000 and 20499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 20500 and 20999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 21000 and 21499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 21500 and 21999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 22000 and 22499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 22500 and 22999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 23000 and 23499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 23500 and 23999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 24000 and 24499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 24500 and 24999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 25000 and 25499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 25500 and 25999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 26000 and 26499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 26500 and 26999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27000 and 27499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27500 and 27999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 28000 and 28499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 28500 and 28999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 29000 and 29499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 29500 and 29999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 30000 and 30499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 30500 and 30999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 31000 and 31499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 31500 and 31999.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 32000 and 32499.99, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 32500 and 33000, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 33000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst price targets. While Wall Street equity strategists typically publish year-end Nasdaq-100 forecasts based on earnings models and macroeconomic assumptions, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment from thousands of participants with direct financial incentives. Markets tend to price in tail risks and volatility that analyst consensus may underweight, making them a complementary signal to formal research estimates for gauging institutional and retail expectations.
On Kalshi, the Nasdaq-100 year-end close is priced through binary outcome contracts tied to specific price levels. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders buy or sell shares representing whether the index will close above or below key thresholds—such as 19,000—with odds reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. Contract prices range from 0 to 100 cents, where higher prices indicate stronger conviction that an outcome will occur. Liquidity and trading volume concentrate around the most actively traded strike levels, allowing traders to express precise views on where the Nasdaq-100 will settle.
The Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026 market will respond to major macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and earnings revisions for mega-cap technology and growth stocks that dominate the index. Key catalysts include inflation reports, employment data, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments that affect risk appetite. Corporate earnings surprises, AI adoption trends, regulatory actions on big tech, and shifts in bond yields will also drive trader positioning. Seasonal patterns, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and technical levels near support and resistance can amplify volatility as the resolution date approaches.
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