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$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

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MATCHED EVENTS:

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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
polymarket
predict
limitless

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Total volume:
$6,461,758
Volume 24h:
$107,028
144%
Liquidity:
$5,904,567
654%
Open interest:
$1,924,371N/A

↑$1.5T

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96.5¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 20% 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑$1.5T

Trade
96%
10%
Yes 96.5¢No 4.5¢
1¢
$57,463
$325,718
9%
14%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
predict

↑$1.5T

Trade
96%
9%
Yes 96.1¢No 5¢
1.1¢
$167,321
$19,959
19%
32%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
limitless

↑ $1.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
96%
Yes 96.3¢No 4.8¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

↑$1.75T

Trade
84%
6%
Yes 84¢No 17¢
1¢
$40,596
$744,075
1%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
predict

↑$1.75T

Trade
81%
Yes 82.1¢No 19.8¢
1.9¢
$63,772
$53,921
0.66%
68%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
limitless

↑ $1.75T

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
83.3%
Yes 83.1¢No 18.4¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 2¢
predict

↑$2.0T

Trade
71%
Yes 71.6¢No 29.8¢
1.4¢
$40,998
$45,941
2%
8%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$2.0T

Trade
71%
Yes 71¢No 30¢
1¢
$12,458
$877,976
0.59%
17%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
limitless

↑ $2.0T

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
70.5%
Yes 71.3¢No 29.9¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 2.5¢
polymarket

↑$2.25T

Trade
38%
4%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$8,557
$8,975
171%
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$2.5T

Trade
32%
4%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
$13,560
$512,089
1%
9%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
predict

↑$2.5T

Trade
31%
4%
Yes 31.9¢No 70.5¢
2.4¢
$36,251
$26,858
1%
10%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
limitless

↑ $2.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
31.5%
Yes 32¢No 69.8¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

↑$3.0T

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
$31,385
$1,550,761
0.71%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
predict

↑$3.0T

Trade
17%
Yes 16.8¢No 83.3¢
0.1¢
$40,098
$62,044
4%
6%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
limitless

↑ $3.0T

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.5%
Yes 17.4¢No 83.1¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

↑$4.0T

Trade
5%
Yes 5.3¢No 94.8¢
0.1¢
$46,098
$917,817
0.03%
0.4%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
limitless

↑ $4.0T

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.3%
Yes 5.3¢No 94.8¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1.5¢
polymarket

↑$5.0T

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 96¢
0.4¢
$59,465
$447,664
0.02%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
limitless

↑ $5.0T

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.2%
Yes 4.4¢No 96¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1.5¢
predict

↓$800B

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 95.7¢
0.1¢
$44,338
$21,865
0.09%
1%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓$800B

Trade
4%
4%
Yes 4.3¢No 96.9¢
1.2¢
$8,489
$165,748
3%
8%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
limitless

↓ $800B

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 4.4¢No 96.3¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 2.5¢
polymarket

↓$700B

Trade
4%
Yes 3.8¢No 96.5¢
0.3¢
$35,893
$78,591
0.06%
0.26%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
predict

↓$700B

Trade
4%
Yes 3.7¢No 96.8¢
0.5¢
$46,649
$19,817
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.6%
Yes 3.8¢No 96.6¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.5¢
Total markets: 25 of 35

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Anthropic achieving a valuation of $1.5T by December 31, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Predict is 89.5% that this will occur, based on data from the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). Resolution will be determined by NPM data, or potentially by IPO/direct listing prices should those occur before the deadline. Keep an eye on Anthropic’s funding rounds and any potential announcements regarding an initial public offering, as these developments will likely influence the market as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 5, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize the same resolution source (NPM) and criteria for determining Anthropic's valuation, including handling of IPOs/direct listings and data availability issues.Primary resolution logic: Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) data: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on Anthropic's private market valuation as reported by NPM.
  • If an IPO or direct listing occurs, the IPO/listing price and subsequent public market capitalization will also be considered.
  • The resolution date is December 31, 2026, with a potential extension until January 4, 2027, if NPM data is delayed.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • NPM Cessation: If NPM ceases publishing data before December 31, 2026, the market will resolve based on the last available NPM data.
  • Acquisition: If Anthropic is acquired, only NPM valuations and public market capitalizations prior to the acquisition will be considered.
  • Data Revisions: Revisions to previously published NPM data will only be considered if they correct clearly erroneous data.
Timing: Resolution will occur after December 31, 2026, or as soon as possible following an IPO/direct listing, with a potential extension to January 4, 2027, if NPM data is delayed.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on whether Anthropic’s valuation will reach a specific threshold by Jan 5, 2027. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $6,461,671, with $76,447 traded in the last 24 hours. The Anthropic valuation market reflects the collective wisdom of forecasters, providing a real-time assessment of the probability of this event occurring. The current leading outcome, Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?, has a combined probability of approximately 96.0% across both venues, indicating strong belief in this possibility.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or incentives, while this market aggregates the opinions of a diverse group of individuals with skin in the game. The current price action suggests a higher probability of Anthropic reaching the valuation target than many conventional estimates indicate. However, it's important to note that both prediction markets and analyst forecasts are imperfect, and discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access. This market provides a valuable, forward-looking signal that complements traditional financial analysis.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, which can lead to differing levels of demand for specific outcomes. Furthermore, the liquidity available on each platform can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? at 96.0%, while Predict leans toward Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? at 95.6%. These differences reflect the unique characteristics of each market and the varying interpretations of available information among traders.

This market resolves around Jan 5, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on Anthropic’s publicly stated valuation, as reported by reliable financial news sources and official company announcements. The outcome of this market will reflect whether the company’s valuation meets or exceeds the specified target by the resolution date, providing a clear and objective assessment of this financial event. Traders should monitor relevant news and announcements leading up to Jan 5, 2027.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major funding rounds for Anthropic, partnerships with large technology companies, or breakthroughs in their AI technology could all drive the valuation higher. Conversely, negative news regarding their technology, increased competition in the AI space, or broader economic downturns could exert downward pressure. Regulatory developments related to AI safety and deployment could also play a role. Traders should closely monitor these factors, as well as overall market sentiment, to anticipate potential shifts in the price of this market before Jan 5, 2027.