TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?
polymarket
kalshi
limitless

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Total volume:
$173,042
Volume 24h:
$32,008
2,716%
Liquidity:
$28,555
119%
Open interest:
$35,774
112%

Goldman Sachs

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 5% 431 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Goldman Sachs

Trade
93%
Yes 94¢No 7¢
1¢
N/A
$22,486
42%
48%
$9,032
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Goldman Sachs

Trade
92%
86%
Yes 94¢No 10.5¢
4.5¢
$3,103
$31,165
7%
24%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

Goldman Sachs

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
92.3%
Yes 94¢No 8.8¢
Avg: 2.8¢Max: 4.5¢
limitless

Morgan Stanley

Trade
50%
43%
Yes 50¢No 50.1¢
99.9¢
N/A
$11
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Morgan Stanley

Trade
6%
58%
Yes 10¢No 97.8¢
7.8¢
$4,188
$29,717
8%
25%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Morgan Stanley

Trade
1%
82%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$23,877
44%
45%
$9,957
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 20.7¢No 82.3¢
Avg: 36.2¢Max: 99.9¢
kalshi

Citigroup

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$5,244
132%
132%
$4,896
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Citigroup

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,283
$5,761
0%
1%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

Citigroup

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99¢
Avg: 50.4¢Max: 99.9¢
kalshi

No Listed Underwriter

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$3,773
269%
298%
$3,547
1y 2mo
active
kalshi

Bank of America

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$9,900
80%
80%
$4,982
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Bank of America

Trade
0%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.5¢
—
$3,348
$6,255
2%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

Bank of America

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.7%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 50.4¢Max: 99.9¢
kalshi

JPMorgan Chase

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$3,808
321%
358%
$3,360
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

JPMorgan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$3,198
$12,254
0.24%
0.24%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

JPMorgan

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.6%
Yes 1.6¢No 99¢
Avg: 33.7¢Max: 99.9¢
polymarket

Wells Fargo

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$2,887
$3,801
0.85%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

Wells Fargo

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 50.1¢Max: 99.9¢
polymarket

Deutsche Bank

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$2,660
$6,004
15%
15%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

Deutsche Bank

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 99.9¢Max: 99.9¢
polymarket

UBS

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$2,917
$4,521
0%
0.47%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

UBS

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 99.9¢Max: 99.9¢
polymarket

Barclays

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
—
$2,971
$4,465
0%
1%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
limitless

Barclays

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 99.9¢Max: 99.9¢
limitless

Bank A

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi specifically asks about the 'lead-left' underwriter, which may be a narrower definition than Polymarket's 'lead underwriter'.Hero tip: Focus on whether the bank is designated as 'lead-left' in official disclosures. If only 'lead underwriter' is mentioned, the Polymarket definition will likely be used.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the bank serving as the lead underwriter, with tie-breaking rules based on prospectus order. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter...'
  • Kalshi: Resolves if a bank serves as the 'lead-left' underwriter. Key Quote: 'If Goldman Sachs serves as lead-left underwriter...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which entity serves as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's U.S. initial public offering before January 1, 2028. Lead-left position is determined by the final prospectus cover, where the uppermost-and-leftmost underwriter occupies this role. If multiple underwriters share equal top billing with no single uppermost-and-leftmost entity, each tied underwriter's outcome receives a fractional payout: $1 divided by the number of tied underwriters (rounded down) for Yes, with No receiving the remainder. This shared-credit mechanism ensures fair resolution when underwriting leadership is genuinely co-equal.

Limitless

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities associated with which investment bank will lead Anthropic’s initial public offering. Currently, there’s a strong consensus view across both platforms, with a combined volume of $173,042 indicating significant interest in this market. The aggregated data shows Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO? is currently favored, reflecting a combined probability of around 91.8% on Polymarket and 93.0% on Kalshi. This allows traders to monitor sentiment and potential shifts in expectations regarding the lead underwriter for this highly anticipated IPO.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts frequently base their predictions on company fundamentals and industry trends, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of various outcomes. The current price action suggests traders are weighing factors not fully captured in conventional analysis, such as the bank’s recent track record with tech IPOs or perceived relationships with Anthropic’s leadership. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst expectations can present opportunities for informed traders.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise due to several factors. Each platform attracts a slightly different user base with varying expertise and risk tolerance. Trading volume also differs – currently Polymarket has seen a 24-hour volume of $32,146 – which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, subtle differences in platform mechanics or user interface can lead to divergent opinions. While both platforms are tracking the same event, these nuances contribute to the observed price variations in the Anthropic IPO lead bank market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the lead underwriter for Anthropic’s IPO is officially announced and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the firm publicly identified as the lead bookrunner for the offering, as stated in the IPO prospectus or official press releases. The outcome will reflect which bank is designated as leading the initial public offering process, and this market will settle accordingly, providing a clear indication of the collective prediction accuracy.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding Anthropic’s IPO timeline, such as a confirmed filing date or a change in planned offering size, would likely cause price fluctuations. Announcements about key personnel changes at potential lead banks, or reports of increased competition for the role, could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, broader market conditions, particularly sentiment towards tech IPOs, and any regulatory developments impacting the offering process could influence trading activity and move the price of this market before Jan 1, 2028.