TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

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Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
polymarket

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

May 19, 2026, 1:04 AM EST - Jan 4, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,340,606
Volume 24h:
$17,682
752%
Liquidity:
$83,119
31%
Open interest:
$147,232N/A

↑$1.3T

 - Polymarket

↑$1.3T - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by December 31?

71%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
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Trade on Polymarket

At 80¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 71% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% | APY: 220% Low liquidity 69 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑$1.3T

Trade
71%
7%
Yes 80¢No 38¢
18¢
$182
$2,607
13%
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$1.35T

50%
Yes 61¢No 62¢
23¢
$202
$1,956
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$1.4T

34%
10%
Yes 47¢No 79¢
26¢
$145
$449
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$1.45T

33%
1%
Yes 46¢No 81¢
27¢
$195
$257
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$1.5T

14%
1%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
$4,886
$127,142
0.76%
5%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$1.75T

7%
Yes 7.5¢No 93¢
0.5¢
$3,208
$90,162
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$2.0T

7%
1%
Yes 7.3¢No 93.3¢
0.6¢
$4,625
$156,144
0%
0.58%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↓$800B

7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$1,916
$112,447
0.19%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↓$750B

6%
1%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
$3,562
$134,328
0%
0.8%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↓$700B

4%
Yes 6.7¢No 98¢
4.7¢
$1,821
$63,859
0%
0.4%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↓$600B

4%
1%
Yes 6.4¢No 97.8¢
4.2¢
$13,248
$61,298
0%
0.12%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↓$500B

4%
1%
Yes 5¢No 97.4¢
2.4¢
$6,162
$63,934
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$2.5T

3%
Yes 4¢No 98.7¢
2.7¢
$10,430
$59,498
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$4.0T

2%
Yes 2.6¢No 98.9¢
1.5¢
$6,055
$24,066
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$5.0T

2%
Yes 3¢No 99.4¢
2.4¢
$3,927
$14,856
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

↑$3.0T

2%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.5¢
2.2¢
$22,555
$33,765
0%
0.42%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$1.0T

100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$138,909
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

↑$1.25T

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$136,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

↑$900B

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$118,715
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
Total markets: 19

Intro

This market tracks whether OpenAI’s valuation will reach $1.0T by December 31, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 79.0% probability. The market resolves based on data from Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), specifically the NPM Price reported for OpenAI, and potentially public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing, with data available at https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. Keep an eye on the NPM Price reported on December 31, 2026, as that will be the final data point considered for resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenAI valuation market tracks the current odds of OpenAI reaching a valuation of $1.0T by the end of the year. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probability has shifted over time, along with the total volume traded, currently at $1,340,606. The 24-hour volume is reported as $1,476, giving you a sense of recent trading activity and interest in this market. This allows traders to monitor sentiment and potential shifts in expectations regarding OpenAI’s future worth.

Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a high degree of confidence that OpenAI’s valuation will reach $1.0T by Jan 5, 2027. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of potential valuations. While many analysts agree OpenAI is a rapidly growing company, the timing and magnitude of its future valuation are subject to debate. This market provides a real-time, aggregated view of what traders believe, offering a different perspective than traditional expert opinions on the company’s trajectory.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of OpenAI reaching the specified valuation. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price, and the greater the implied probability. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of participants, constantly adjusting to new information and sentiment surrounding OpenAI’s performance and potential.

This market resolves around Jan 5, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on OpenAI’s publicly stated valuation as determined by official company announcements or widely recognized financial data sources. The market will determine whether OpenAI’s valuation has reached or exceeded $1.0T by that date, based on these publicly available figures. Traders should monitor news and financial reports leading up to the resolution date for relevant updates.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding OpenAI’s financial performance, such as revenue growth or profitability reports, would be key catalysts. Developments in artificial intelligence regulation or competitive pressures from other AI companies could also shift sentiment. Positive or negative news surrounding OpenAI’s partnerships, product launches (like GPT-5), or technological breakthroughs would likely influence trading activity. Any substantial changes in overall market conditions or investor appetite for tech stocks could also play a role in moving this market before Jan 5, 2027.