TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
kalshi

When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?

Jul 30, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jun 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$532,694
Volume 24h:
$444
0.95%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$267,120
0.02%

Before Jun 30, 2027

 - Kalshi

Before Jun 30, 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 1, 2027

When will Starlink IPO?

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 5¢ buys you 2,000 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $2,000 | Net Profit: $1,900 Multiplier: 20.00x | ROI: 1,900% APY not meaningful 217 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jun 30, 2027

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$96,707
0.17%
0.46%
$34,303
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$39,347
0%
0.07%
$13,860
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$23,406
0%
0.1%
$9,790
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$17,759
0.01%
3%
$10,034
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
3%
3%
Yes 6¢No 97¢
3¢
N/A
$28,583
0.97%
0.98%
$13,327
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$19,943
0.01%
2%
$8,001
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$13,953
0%
0%
$7,163
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,217
0%
0.81%
$4,565
7mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2026

View
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,288
N/A
N/A
$8,123
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,296
N/A
N/A
$13,736
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,968
N/A
N/A
$8,763
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,135
N/A
N/A
$6,745
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before May 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,550
N/A
N/A
$4,534
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$150,683
N/A
N/A
$84,913
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,144
N/A
N/A
$15,188
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,464
N/A
N/A
$12,966
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,253
N/A
N/A
$11,109
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2025

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2025

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2025

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
7mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2025

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
7mo 1w
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks whether SpaceX’s Starlink will officially announce an initial public offering (IPO) before May 1, 2027. Currently, the probability of Starlink announcing an IPO by that date on Kalshi is 13.0%, with a 9.0% probability assigned to the alternative outcome. The resolution source for this market is whether Starlink confirms an IPO before the specified date. Traders should watch for any announcements regarding Starlink’s IPO timeline during SpaceX’s next major investor day, as detailed plans confirmed by mid-2027 would significantly impact the market.

Kalshi

An IPO is confirmed upon any of three triggering events: SEC effectiveness of the Form S-1 registration statement, pricing of the offering, or assignment of a ticker symbol by a securities exchange. Once any of these events occurs, the market resolves to Yes immediately, regardless of when actual trading begins. The event tracks confirmation across multiple time windows spanning from May 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027, with each window representing a distinct resolution date. If confirmation occurs before any given deadline, that market resolves affirmatively even if trading is delayed beyond that date.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Starlink IPO market tracks the current odds of various IPO dates, the price history of contracts predicting those dates, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the market shows a volume of $280 and total volume of $532,694. The top outcome, as indicated by trader activity, is currently priced at a chance of 5.0%. This allows participants to see how sentiment is shifting regarding the timing of SpaceX's Starlink going public and provides insight into the collective prediction.

Currently, analysts have a wide range of predictions for when Starlink will initiate an IPO, with estimates varying from late 2024 to beyond 2028. This market reflects a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probability distribution over potential IPO dates. While some analyst forecasts align with the more probable outcomes in this market, the prediction market often incorporates information and nuances that traditional forecasts might miss, such as regulatory hurdles or internal SpaceX developments. The dynamic nature of this market allows for continuous recalibration based on new information.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts corresponding to specific IPO dates. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that date being the official IPO announcement date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. Higher volume on a particular date generally indicates greater confidence in that timeframe, while price movements signal shifts in sentiment driven by news or analysis. The market's depth and liquidity allow for efficient price discovery.

This market resolves around Jun 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official Starlink IPO announcement date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the date SpaceX publicly and officially announces its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering for Starlink, including filing the necessary paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Any preliminary filings or rumors will not trigger resolution; it requires a definitive announcement of the IPO process. The market will determine the winning outcome based on this publicly available information.

Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from SpaceX regarding Starlink’s financial performance, subscriber growth, or regulatory approvals would be influential. Changes in the overall market conditions for IPOs, such as a bull or bear market, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any news concerning potential delays or complications in Starlink's satellite deployment or service expansion could affect the perceived timeline for an IPO. Positive developments, like exceeding revenue targets or securing key partnerships, would likely increase the probability of an earlier IPO date in this market.