TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

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5

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Richest person on December 31, 2026?
polymarket

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Nov 12, 2025, 5:36 PM EST - Jan 2, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,954,976
Volume 24h:
$990
65%
Liquidity:
$197,359
1%
Open interest:
$26,764N/A

Elon Musk

 - Polymarket

Elon Musk - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 2, 2027

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97.8¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 13% 67 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Elon Musk

Trade
97%
Yes 97.8¢No 2.9¢
0.7¢
$16,368
$199,008
0.01%
0.69%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Warren Buffett

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.5¢
0.8¢
$15,336
$93,612
0%
0.15%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Bernard Arnault

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.7¢
1¢
$17,649
$371,061
0.09%
0.32%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Mark Zuckerberg

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.8¢
0.4¢
$22,828
$134,298
0%
0.17%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Jeff Bezos

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$19,409
$348,670
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Steve Ballmer

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$24,507
$314,932
0.04%
0.54%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Jensen Huang

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$25,107
$181,738
0%
0.29%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Larry Ellison

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$21,976
$64,018
0.85%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Larry Page

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$15,363
$156,388
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Sergey Brin

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$15,852
$89,812
0%
0.58%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Person A

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,962
$1,437
0%
33%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks which individual will have the highest net worth on December 31, 2026, as determined by wealth rankings. Currently, Polymarket gives a 96.5% probability to Elon Musk being the richest person on that date, with Warren Buffett at 1.1%. The market will resolve using the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026, with Forbes Real-Time Billionaires as a backup source if needed. Keep an eye on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index data released on January 1, 2027, as this will be the first indication of the final rankings used for settlement.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this market reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While traditional financial analysts often publish lists of potential future billionaires, this market aggregates the views of a diverse range of traders, creating a dynamic forecast. Currently, the market strongly favors one individual, but analyst opinions may be more dispersed. It's important to remember that analysts rely on fundamental analysis and expert judgment, while this market reflects real-money bets on the outcome, potentially incorporating information not yet reflected in traditional forecasts.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy shares in a specific individual, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of them being the richest person. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This creates a constantly updating forecast based on the collective wisdom of the traders participating in this market.

This market resolves around Jan 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The richest person will be determined based on publicly available wealth rankings from reputable financial publications. The resolution will reflect the individual with the highest net worth as of December 31, 2026, as reported by these sources. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of this market.

Numerous factors could influence the outcome of this market, including stock market performance, macroeconomic conditions, and major business ventures undertaken by leading billionaires. Unexpected events, such as technological breakthroughs or shifts in global economic power, could also significantly impact individual wealth. The actions and decisions of these individuals themselves, such as investments, acquisitions, or philanthropic endeavors, will play a crucial role in determining who ultimately emerges as the world's richest person by Jan 3, 2027. This makes this market a fascinating reflection of global economic trends and individual fortunes.