TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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NBA: LeBron James Next Team
polymarket
kalshi
predict

NBA: LeBron James Next Team

Total volume:
$52,283,905
Volume 24h:
$10
89%
Liquidity:
$194,263
0%
Open interest:
$11,517
0.09%

Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires

 - Kalshi

Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 21, 2026

What will be Chet Holmgren's next team?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 22% 54 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires

Trade
93%
Yes 97¢No 7¢
4¢
N/A
$10,379
0.1%
0.19%
$7,566
1mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Minnesota

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$1,349
0%
6%
$1,349
1mo 3w 3d
active
predict

Minnesota Timberwolves

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$2,427
$384,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

Minnesota Timberwolves

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,734,846
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.7%
Yes 1.7¢No 100¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Sacramento

Trade
5%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$501
0%
0%
$501
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Sacramento Kings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$345,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.5%
Yes 1.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Milwaukee

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$2,951
0%
0%
$1,139
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Milwaukee Bucks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$313,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Los Angeles L

Trade
4%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$31
0%
0%
$31
1mo 3w 3d
active
predict

Los Angeles Lakers

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$1,292
$721,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

Los Angeles Lakers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,693,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.3%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Detroit

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$116
0%
0%
$116
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Detroit Pistons

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$959,759
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.5%
Yes 1.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Philadelphia

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$31
0%
0%
$31
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Philadelphia 76ers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,830,713
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
Yes
predict

Philadelphia 76ers

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$54,045
$1,040,767
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
67.7%
Yes 68.3¢No 33.4¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Denver

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$31
0%
0%
$31
1mo 3w 3d
active
predict

Denver Nuggets

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$30,742
$285,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

Denver Nuggets

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,462,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 100¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 5¢
kalshi

Boston

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$600
0%
0%
$600
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Boston Celtics

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,370,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Dallas

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$152
0%
0%
$152
1mo 3w 3d
active
predict

Dallas Mavericks

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$20,798
$448,276
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

Dallas Mavericks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,548,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.7%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Brooklyn

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3w 3d
active
Total markets: 25 of 78

Intro

This market tracks which NBA team LeBron James will be playing for during the 2026-27 season. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability that LeBron remains with the Los Angeles Lakers is 97.0%. Resolution is determined by official team announcements or credible media reporting of LeBron's official acquisition by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with the Lakers as the default outcome if no move occurs by that deadline.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Subject mismatch: Kalshi tracks Chet Holmgren while Polymarket and Predict track LeBron James. Additionally, Kalshi deadline is October 21, 2026, versus October 31, 2026 for other platforms. These are separate, non-comparable events.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket/Predict as entirely separate markets. Do not assume arbitrage or correlation. Verify player identity before trading. Note that Kalshi's 'Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires' option has no equivalent in LeBron markets, which default to Lakers instead.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: LeBron James next team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves to Lakers if no move; Other if unlisted team, retirement, or no contract. Primary sources: official Lakers or acquiring team announcements, or credible media consensus.
  • Predict: LeBron James next team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Identical resolution logic to Polymarket: defaults to Lakers if no move; Other for unlisted teams or retirement. Primary sources: official announcements or credible media reporting.
  • Kalshi: Chet Holmgren's next team by October 21, 2026 (10 days earlier). Covers all 30 NBA teams plus 'Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires' option. No default resolution specified; no primary source guidance provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the next team LeBron James officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If LeBron James does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Los Angeles Lakers”. If LeBron James joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If LeBron James retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Kalshi

This event determines Chet Holmgren's team status before October 21, 2026. Resolution occurs if he is traded to a new team, retires, or remains with Oklahoma City Thunder. If Chet Holmgren retires or remains on the team he was on at market issuance (Oklahoma City) by October 21, 2026, the market titled 'Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires' will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves based on which team he joins through a trade or other transaction before the deadline.

Predict

This market will resolve to the next team LeBron James officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If LeBron James does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Los Angeles Lakers”. If LeBron James joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If LeBron James retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates trader predictions across Kalshi and Polymarket, tracking where LeBron James will play in the 2026–27 NBA season. The LeBron James free agency market has drawn significant interest, with combined volume reaching $52,283,689 and recent 24-hour activity at $843,188. By monitoring odds across multiple platforms, you can see real-time consensus on his most likely destination, spot divergences between exchanges, and track how major news—trades, contract developments, or team performance—shifts trader positioning. This cross-platform view reveals both the leading outcome and emerging alternatives as the free agency period approaches.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price uncertainty differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect pure trader consensus—what participants genuinely believe will happen. On this market, traders are pricing LeBron's destination based on team cap space, roster fit, and reported interest, often moving faster than sportsbooks when new information emerges. Prediction market odds tend to be sharper and more responsive to breaking news, though sportsbook lines can offer different value depending on their risk management strategy. Comparing both gives you a fuller picture of where the smart money sees the situation.

Kalshi and Polymarket attract different trader bases, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which naturally creates price variation. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform also settles outcomes using its own verification process and timeline, so traders may weight information or timing risk differently. Polymarket's larger user base and continuous order books can move faster on breaking news, while Kalshi's regulated structure may appeal to traders seeking additional certainty. These structural differences mean the same event can trade at slightly different odds across venues—a spread that savvy traders monitor for arbitrage opportunities or as a signal of genuine disagreement about the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, once LeBron James's team for the 2026–27 season is publicly confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources—official NBA announcements, team statements, or verified reporting from established sports media. Until that point, this market remains open to trading, allowing you to adjust your position as the offseason unfolds. Early resolution may occur if LeBron signs or re-signs before the formal free agency window, so monitoring official channels is essential for timing your trades.

Major catalysts include playoff performance and team chemistry, front-office moves by contenders, salary cap decisions, and reported interest from rival franchises. Trade activity involving other stars can reshape cap space and roster construction, directly affecting LeBron's options. Injury news, coaching changes, or public statements from LeBron or team executives also shift trader sentiment sharply. Media reports about meetings or negotiations often trigger immediate repricing. Additionally, rival teams' draft picks, free agent signings, and mid-season trades all influence which destinations look most attractive, making this market highly reactive to the full NBA ecosystem through the 2025–26 season and into the offseason.