TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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38%

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62%

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Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
predict

Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

May 8, 2026, 3:14 PM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$561,521
Volume 24h:
$171,772N/A
Liquidity:
$181,270
2%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

$2B

 - Predict

$2B - Predict

1W

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Positive

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B?

19%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 19.2¢ buys you 521 shares | Odds: 19% Total Payout: $521 | Net Profit: $421 Multiplier: 5.21x | ROI: 421% | APY: 305% 430 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

$2B

Trade
19%
Yes 19.2¢No 81.3¢
0.5¢
$40,356
$172,968
0%
0.12%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

$4B

Trade
15%
Yes 16.9¢No 87¢
3.9¢
$37,978
$171,631
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

$3B

Trade
15%
Yes 16.6¢No 87.2¢
3.8¢
$37,852
$63,091
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

$1B

Trade
14%
Yes 18.8¢No 90.8¢
9.6¢
$35,256
$153,727
0.09%
0.18%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

$7B

Trade
28%
Yes 54.9¢No 99.6¢
54.5¢
$11,463
$90
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

$6B

Trade
24%
Yes 48.3¢No 99.6¢
47.9¢
$3,262
$13
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
predict

$5B

Trade
N/A
N/A
69.2¢
$15,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Ledger’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the Ledger IPO market tracks the current odds of the IPO closing market cap exceeding a certain value, as well as the price history of the market. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $141. The total volume traded on this market to date is $561,521. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for the Ledger IPO. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment and potential price movements.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a 27.7% chance that the Ledger IPO closing market cap will be above the threshold. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on financial modeling and company reports. Prediction markets, like this one, incorporate a wider range of information, including expert opinions, news events, and even subtle signals that might not be captured in conventional analysis. The collective wisdom of traders can sometimes provide a more accurate prediction than individual forecasts, though discrepancies can occur based on differing methodologies.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of the Ledger IPO closing market cap exceeding the specified value. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure pushing the price up and increased selling pressure pushing it down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and trader sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the Ledger IPO is completed and the closing market cap is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of Ledger’s IPO will be the determining factor, and the market will settle based on whether that price is above or below the specified threshold. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news announcements regarding Ledger’s financial performance, regulatory approvals, or overall market conditions could all cause price fluctuations. Unexpected developments in the broader IPO market, such as a sudden increase or decrease in investor appetite, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any significant changes in analyst ratings or media coverage of Ledger could shift market sentiment and move the odds. Monitoring these signals closely will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.