TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
polymarket
opinion

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Total volume:
$6,828,024
Volume 24h:
$10,976
133%
Liquidity:
$631,743
8%
Open interest:
$655,152N/A

SpaceX

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

55%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 56¢ buys you 179 shares | Odds: 55% Total Payout: $179 | Net Profit: $79 Multiplier: 1.79x | ROI: 79% High Projected APY: 2,254% 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

SpaceX

Trade
55%
7%
Yes 56¢No 46¢
2¢
$22,703
$1,047,760
0.84%
4%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
opinion

SpaceX

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
55%
Yes 56¢No 46¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 6¢
opinion

Anthropic

Trade
56%
Yes 44.9¢No 67¢
11.9¢
N/A
$123,873
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
39%
7%
Yes 42.8¢No 64.9¢
7.7¢
$36,959
$1,394,207
0.11%
0.84%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39%
Yes 43.9¢No 66¢
Avg: 9.8¢Max: 11.9¢
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$83,094
$590,101
0.12%
0.81%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
opinion

OpenAI

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Kraken

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$94,542
$668,099
0%
0.15%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

Revolut

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$61,920
$660,186
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

SHEIN

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$35,644
$635,736
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Databricks

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$23,123
$628,688
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

Waymo

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$63,960
$345,285
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$31,922
$222,525
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

Discord

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$68,568
$203,949
0%
0.99%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Stripe

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$37,855
$173,397
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
polymarket

Perplexity AI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$71,094
$134,218
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the largest market capitalization during its Initial Public Offering in 2026. Currently, Polymarket and Opinion traders assign a 55.8% probability to Anthropic achieving the highest IPO market cap that year, while Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? is at 41%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Opinion, and will resolve based on the official primary exchange’s official listing page. Keep an eye on SpaceX’s planned Starship orbital flight test, currently scheduled for March 2024, as progress there could significantly shift expectations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define resolution based on the highest market capitalization on the first day of trading in 2026, with a tiebreaker of alphabetical order.Primary resolution logic: Official primary exchange’s official listing page.

Core resolution logic:

  • The company with the highest market capitalization on its first trading day in 2026 will resolve the market.
  • Market capitalization is calculated as the closing share price multiplied by the number of outstanding shares.
  • If two or more companies have the same highest market capitalization, the company whose name comes first alphabetically will resolve the market.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Trading Interruption: If trading is interrupted on the first day (e.g., circuit breaker), the market will resolve based on the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the next trading day's closing price will be used.
  • Currency Conversion: If the IPO is listed in a currency other than USD, the USD equivalent will be calculated using the US Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate on the first trading day.
  • Company No Longer IPOing: A listed company may resolve to 'No' if it becomes unable to complete an IPO due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by a publicly traded entity.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the completion of all IPOs in 2026 and the determination of the company with the highest market capitalization on its first trading day, but no later than December 31, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Opinion

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the probability of different companies having the largest IPO market capitalization in 2026. Currently, there's a consensus view forming around a few key contenders, with a combined volume across both platforms exceeding $6,828,024. The aggregated data provides a real-time assessment of the 2026 IPO market, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. The 24-hour volume is currently $19,234, demonstrating active trading and evolving predictions. This allows for a dynamic understanding of potential IPO leaders as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by institutional biases or long-term investment strategies, while this market reflects a more immediate and aggregated assessment of probabilities. The current volume of $6,828,024 suggests significant interest and a degree of confidence in the collective prediction. While analyst reports provide detailed fundamental analysis, this market provides a real-time, incentive-driven view of what traders believe is most likely to happen regarding the 2026 IPO landscape.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Opinion can arise from variations in trader demographics, market participation, and information access. Polymarket currently favors Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? at 55.0%, while Opinion leans toward Anthropic at 55.8%. These discrepancies also reflect differing liquidity and trading volumes on each platform. Furthermore, each platform may attract different types of traders – some more risk-averse, others more speculative – leading to divergent price discovery in this market.

This market resolves around Jan 2, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The company with the largest IPO market capitalization in 2026 will be determined based on publicly available data from financial exchanges and reputable financial news sources. The resolution will be based on the initial market capitalization at the time of the IPO, and will not be adjusted for subsequent price fluctuations. Trading will cease prior to this date, allowing for a final assessment of predictions.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding potential IPOs from leading tech companies, such as Anthropic or Databricks, will likely cause price shifts. Economic indicators, including overall market conditions and investor sentiment, will also play a role. Unexpected regulatory changes affecting the IPO process could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any news regarding the financial performance or growth prospects of potential IPO candidates could move the probabilities reflected in this market, especially given the current volume of $6,828,024.