TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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IPOs before 2027?
polymarket
kalshi
predict
opinion

IPOs before 2027?

Total volume:
$26,566,269
Volume 24h:
$12,749,100N/A
Liquidity:
$738,151
10%
Open interest:
$740,453
0.16%

Anthropic

all

4 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Who will IPO before 2027?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 33% 66 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Anthropic

Trade
95%
11%
Yes 95¢No 7¢
2¢
N/A
$388,135
0.71%
4%
$90,307
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
95%
13%
Yes 95¢No 6¢
1¢
$15,615
$703,250
1%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

Anthropic

Trade
94%
14%
Yes 94.1¢No 6¢
0.1¢
$50,607
$256,772
0.42%
4%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
opinion

Anthropic

Trade
67%
Yes 99.9¢No 43¢
42.9¢
N/A
$996,025
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
94.5%
Yes 96¢No 15.5¢
Avg: 11.5¢Max: 42.9¢
polymarket

Celonis

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 14.8¢No 98.2¢
13¢
$1,540
$211,636
0.03%
0.16%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Celonis

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$17,949
0%
0.28%
$9,840
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8%
Yes 9.4¢No 98.6¢
Avg: 8¢Max: 13¢
opinion

Discord

Trade
40%
Yes 38¢No 98.9¢
36.9¢
N/A
$6,834,294
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 4d
active
kalshi

Discord

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 93¢
4¢
N/A
$139,272
0.11%
0.57%
$21,976
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Discord

Trade
7%
Yes 7.7¢No 94.6¢
2.3¢
$5,536
$492,132
0.08%
0.14%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

Discord

Trade
6%
Yes 6.9¢No 94.9¢
1.8¢
$34,115
$141,752
0%
0.53%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7.3%
Yes 15.9¢No 95.4¢
Avg: 11.3¢Max: 36.9¢
kalshi

Airwallex

Trade
7%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$13,672
0%
2%
$4,225
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Vanta

Trade
6%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$10,728
0%
0%
$4,752
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Vanta

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 8.5¢No 98.9¢
7.4¢
$434
$150,067
0%
0.12%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.9%
Yes 6.3¢No 99¢
Avg: 5.2¢Max: 7.4¢
polymarket

Revolut

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 5.8¢No 96.2¢
2¢
$1,354
$61,641
0%
0.06%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Freddie Mac

Trade
5%
Yes 7.6¢No 98.5¢
6.1¢
$850
$246,222
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Perplexity

Trade
5%
Yes 6.9¢No 97.9¢
4.8¢
$162
$159
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Rippling

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6.8¢No 98¢
4.8¢
$412
$122,189
0.04%
0.06%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Rippling

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$20,259
0.52%
0.52%
$10,355
2mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.2%
Yes 5.4¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 3.9¢Max: 4.8¢
polymarket

Ledger

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6.8¢No 98.3¢
5.1¢
$814
$515,357
0.01%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

Ledger

Trade
3%
Yes 5.4¢No 98.6¢
4¢
$58,848
$195,407
0.06%
76%
N/A
2mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4%
Yes 6.1¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 4.6¢Max: 5.1¢
kalshi

Beast Industries

Trade
4%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$15,513
0%
0.08%
$2,959
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Skims

Trade
4%
Yes 8¢No 97¢
5¢
N/A
$8,043
0%
0.46%
$3,361
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

DeepSeek

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$5,893
0%
0%
$4,569
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Bloomberg

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$3,096
0%
0%
$1,842
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Remote

Trade
4%
Yes 6.6¢No 99.2¢
5.8¢
$405
$56,634
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 25 of 85

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of various private companies completing an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before January 1, 2027. Currently, the consensus probability of a company going public in 2026 is 97.0%. This aggregate reflects predictions from Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict, and Opinion, and will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting such as official company announcements and reputable financial news outlets. Keep an eye on company filings and announcements leading up to December 31, 2026, as that is the deadline for IPO completion to resolve the market to ‘Yes’.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same core resolution criteria: IPO completion by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by credible reporting, with consistent handling of mergers and acquisitions.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting (e.g., official company announcements, reputable financial news outlets).

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to 'Yes' if the listed company completes an IPO before January 1, 2027.
  • Market resolves to 'No' if the company is fully absorbed by a merger, dissolved, or ceases to exist before resolution.
  • Mergers where the listed company continues as a parent or successor do not automatically resolve to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Direct Listing vs. Traditional IPO: A direct listing (where existing shares are sold to the public) is considered an IPO for resolution purposes.
  • SPAC Merger: A merger with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) is considered an IPO for resolution purposes.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon confirmation of an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the company is dissolved/acquired before that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

An IPO is confirmed when any of three milestones occur: the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange assigns a ticker symbol. Resolution to Yes occurs immediately upon any of these events before January 1, 2027, even if public trading does not commence until after that date. Each company tracked has identical confirmation criteria applied independently.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". If the listed company undergoes a merger, this will only qualify for a “No” resolution if the transaction results in the listed company being fully absorbed, dissolved, or otherwise no longer capable of independently conducting an Initial Public Offering. Transactions in which the listed company continues as a parent or successor will not alone qualify for a “No” resolution. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks the likelihood of at least one initial public offering (IPO) occurring before Jan 1, 2027. Currently, there’s a consensus view across both platforms, with a combined volume of $26,566,252 indicating significant interest in the future of the IPO market. The dashboard aggregates data from these venues to provide a comprehensive view of predictions. Polymarket currently favors Anthropic IPO before 2027? at 94.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Who will IPO before 2027? at 95.0%. This allows for a nuanced understanding of expectations surrounding new company listings.

Prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market incorporates a broader range of information and sentiment from many participants. This can lead to discrepancies, especially in situations with high uncertainty or where qualitative factors play a significant role. The current volume of $15,396 suggests active trading and evolving expectations. It’s valuable to compare the probabilities offered by this market with expert opinions to gain a more complete picture of potential IPO activity.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in user base, trading incentives, and market design can lead to price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi. For example, one platform might attract more sophisticated traders with access to specialized information, while the other may have a broader, more general audience. These differing participant profiles can influence how information is incorporated into the price. The spread between the two platforms is currently 0.5, reflecting these varying perspectives on the IPO market. Both platforms offer unique insights, and observing these differences can be informative.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether at least one company has filed for and completed an initial public offering before the specified date. The outcome is determined by publicly available data regarding IPO filings and completion, ensuring transparency and objectivity. The high volume of $26,566,252 indicates strong interest in the outcome of this market, and traders are actively expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of IPOs occurring.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major economic indicators, such as interest rate changes or GDP growth, could influence the overall appetite for risk and impact IPO activity. Announcements from high-profile companies regarding potential IPO plans would also be a key catalyst. Regulatory changes affecting the IPO process could also shift expectations. Additionally, broader market sentiment and investor confidence will play a role. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves as we approach Jan 1, 2027.