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$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

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2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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62%

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Bank of Canada Decision in October?
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi
polymarket

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

Total volume:
$1,096,218
Volume 24h:
$65,364
304%
Liquidity:
$137,103
87%
Open interest:
$255,518
11%

25 bps increase

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 28, 2026

Time left: 13h:45m:03s

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 85¢ buys you 118 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $118 | Net Profit: $18 Multiplier: 1.18x | ROI: 18% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
85%
2%
Yes 85¢No 15.9¢
0.9¢
$18,944
$179,206
10%
62%
N/A
13h 45m
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
83%
1%
Yes 84¢No 17¢
1¢
N/A
$239,593
8%
105%
$125,405
1d 3h 14m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
83.7%
Yes 84.5¢No 16.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Maintains rate

Trade
17%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
N/A
$319,341
5%
65%
$102,406
1d 3h 14m
active
polymarket

No Change

Trade
16%
1%
Yes 16¢No 84.9¢
0.9¢
$51,086
$200,025
8%
64%
N/A
13h 45m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16.4%
Yes 17¢No 83.9¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$5,345
0.47%
82%
$5,170
1d 3h 14m
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,381
0%
39%
$6,381
1d 3h 14m
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$24,213
0.14%
16%
$16,156
1d 3h 14m
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$34,142
$48,559
0.1%
96%
N/A
13h 45m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$15,689
$50,386
0.1%
44%
N/A
13h 45m
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$17,241
$23,169
0.22%
38%
N/A
13h 45m
active
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the Bank of Canada maintaining its overnight rate at 0bps at their October 2026 meeting. Currently, the consensus probability of no rate hike is 56.0%, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. The market will resolve based on the Bank of Canada’s decision on October 28, 2026, specifically if they implement a 0bps hike at that meeting. Keep a close watch on the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report scheduled for release on October 21, 2026, as it may signal their intentions ahead of the rate decision.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' for any rate change or no change, while Polymarket offers separate markets for specific rate changes.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is broader; Polymarket's markets require more precise predictions about the magnitude of the rate change.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers multiple markets, each focused on a specific rate change (e.g., +50bps, +25bps, -25bps, -50+bps). Resolution depends on whether that specific change occurs.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' if the Bank of Canada hikes rates by any amount (greater than or equal to 25bps), cuts rates by any amount, or makes no change. It's a broader 'change or no change' question.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the Bank of Canada's policy decision at its October 28, 2026 meeting. Outcomes are mutually exclusive, with each resolving to Yes only if the Bank of Canada takes that specific action: a rate cut greater than 25 basis points, a cut of exactly 25 basis points, maintaining the current rate (0 basis points), a hike of 25 basis points, or a hike greater than 25 basis points. Only one outcome can resolve to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the Bank of Canada decision. Currently, the aggregate volume across both platforms is $1,096,218, with $65,308 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the outcome of the October meeting. Polymarket currently favors Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? at 84.5%, while Kalshi also leans toward Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? at 83.0%. This suggests a strong expectation, though some divergence remains between the two platforms.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and reports, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the Bank of Canada’s actions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, access to non-public information, or simply the inherent biases present in forecasting. Comparing the implied probability in this market to consensus analyst expectations can offer a more nuanced view of potential outcomes and the level of uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada decision.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a unique user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing trading activity. Market makers on each platform might also employ different strategies, influencing price discovery. Additionally, liquidity levels can vary between the two venues, impacting the efficiency of price adjustments. These factors contribute to the observed spread of 1.5 between the two markets, even though they track the same underlying event – the Bank of Canada decision.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bank of Canada’s official announcement regarding its monetary policy decision at the October meeting. Specifically, the market will reflect whether the Bank of Canada raised, lowered, or held steady the overnight rate target. Traders should monitor official Bank of Canada communications for the definitive outcome that determines the settlement of this market.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift expectations regarding the Bank of Canada’s stance. Statements from Bank of Canada officials regarding future monetary policy intentions will also be closely watched. Geopolitical events or changes in global financial conditions could also influence the market, as these factors can impact the Canadian economy. Any news that alters the perceived likelihood of a rate hike, cut, or hold will likely lead to increased trading volume and price adjustments in this market.