TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
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647,445,881
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622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Will Tempo launch a token by ___ ?
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Tempo will launch an officially tradable governance token by specific dates. Across Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability for a token launch by December 31, 2027 stands at 39.5%, with a 39.0% probability assigned to launch by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official Tempo announcements and documentation, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source. Watch for any official token launch announcements from Tempo, as the token must be actively and publicly transferable on a market to trigger resolution, not merely announced.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official Tempo (https://tempo.xyz/) announcements and documentation; secondary source is consensus of credible reporting on token launch and tradabilityCore resolution logic:
- Token must be officially launched by Tempo
- Token must be actively and publicly transferable
- Token must be actively and publicly tradable on at least one market or exchange
- Announcements of future token launches do not qualify; actual live trading capability required
- Resolution deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the specified date in each market title
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Announcement without trading: If Tempo announces a token launch but it is not yet actively tradable by the deadline, the market resolves NO
- Limited or restricted trading: Token must be publicly and actively tradable; restricted or whitelisted-only trading may not satisfy the criteria depending on credible reporting consensus
- Multiple token launches: If Tempo launches multiple tokens, resolution is YES if at least one governance token meets the criteria by the deadline
- Source conflict: If official Tempo sources and credible reporting conflict, consensus of credible reporting is used as tiebreaker
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on each specified date: December 31 2025, March 31 2026, June 30 2026, September 30 2026, and December 31 2026Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tempo (https://tempo.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tempo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Predict
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tempo (https://tempo.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tempo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect traders' probabilistic bets on whether Tempo launches a token by a given date, independent of any current spot price. These odds are forward-looking consensus estimates based on fundamental signals, roadmap announcements, and community sentiment. Spot price expectations, by contrast, price in current market conditions and near-term catalysts. The prediction market can diverge significantly from spot price moves because it isolates the binary token-launch question from broader market volatility, offering a cleaner signal of launch probability.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price gaps. Polymarket shows 3.9% for its top outcome, while Predict reflects 22.0%, a spread of 18.1 percentage points. Differences arise from varying order-book depth, user base expertise, platform incentives, and settlement rule clarity. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but friction costs and timing delays mean prices need not converge perfectly until resolution approaches.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. The outcome hinges on whether Tempo has publicly announced and launched a token by that deadline. Resolution is determined by verifiable evidence of token issuance, such as official announcements, blockchain records, or credible third-party confirmation. Markets typically require clear documentation to settle, ensuring traders have an objective, auditable basis for determining winners and losers.
Key catalysts include official Tempo roadmap updates, executive statements on tokenization plans, regulatory developments affecting token launches, competitive moves by rival projects, and community governance votes. Funding announcements, partnerships, or technical milestones that accelerate development could increase launch probability. Conversely, regulatory headwinds, leadership changes, or strategic pivots away from tokenization could lower odds. Market participants monitor Tempo's social channels, blog posts, and on-chain activity for signals that shift the launch timeline.
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