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622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Will Rabby launch a token by ___? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Rabby, a blockchain wallet and DeFi platform, will launch an official governance token by specified dates. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability that Rabby launches a token by December 31, 2027 stands at 40.5%, with a 12.0% probability for launch by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official Rabby announcements and communications, with credible reporting as a secondary source. Watch for any official Rabby governance token announcements or product roadmap updates leading up to the December 31, 2027 deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official Rabby announcements and communications; consensus of credible reporting as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Token must be officially launched by Rabby (not third-party or community-created)
- Token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable on at least one public market or exchange
- Announcements, pre-announcements, or non-transferable tokens do not qualify for Yes resolution
- Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on the specified date in each market title
- If token is launched after the deadline, market resolves to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Announcement vs. Launch: An announcement of a future token launch does not trigger Yes resolution. The token must be actively tradable and transferable.
- Limited vs. Public Launch: Token must be publicly available for trading; private sales, whitelisted launches, or restricted transfers do not qualify.
- Multiple Tokens: If Rabby launches multiple tokens, resolution is Yes if any official Rabby governance token meets the criteria by the deadline.
- Exchange Listing Timing: Token must be actively tradable by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date; listing after this time results in No resolution for that market.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on each specified date: March 31, 2026; June 30, 2026; September 30, 2026; and December 31, 2026. Each market resolves independently based on whether the token launch has occurred by that date.Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rabby officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Predict
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rabby officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about token launch timing, independent of any current or future spot price. Markets price in the probability of launch occurrence and speed, not token valuation. If Rabby announces tokenomics or a launch date, odds will reprice sharply. Spot prices of other tokens or Rabby's protocol activity may correlate with launch sentiment, but the prediction market isolates the binary event itself, making it a pure probability signal separate from trading or valuation dynamics.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict may price the same launch event differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity depth, and trading incentives on each platform. Polymarket shows 0.0% probability while Predict reflects 21.5%, a spread of 21.5 percentage points. Differences arise from varying trader sophistication, regional access, fee structures, and how each platform's community interprets Rabby's development signals and timeline.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Outcome determination hinges on whether Rabby has officially launched a token—including announcement, deployment, and public availability—by the specified deadline. Resolution depends on verifiable evidence of token issuance, such as blockchain confirmation, official Rabby communications, or recognized news sources. Markets may resolve early if Rabby publicly confirms or rules out a launch before the end date.
Key catalysts include official Rabby announcements about tokenomics, governance structure, or launch timing; regulatory clarity affecting token issuance; major protocol updates or partnerships that signal readiness; community governance votes on token parameters; competitor token launches that influence Rabby's strategy; and funding or hiring announcements indicating acceleration. Conversely, delays, pivots away from tokenization, or silence from the team could dampen launch odds. Market sentiment will shift sharply on any credible signal about token probability or timeline.
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