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$114.8b

24H VOL:

$118,500,677

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,212,020,469

340,542

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35,131

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,465

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
polymarket

Will Perplexity's valuation hit the target by December 31, 2026?

May 19, 2026, 1:05 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 8:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$61,374
Volume 24h:
$91
84%
Liquidity:
$4,668
0.34%
Open interest:
$6,158N/A

↑$20B

 - Polymarket

↑$20B - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 74¢ buys you 135 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $135 | Net Profit: $35 Multiplier: 1.35x | ROI: 35% | APY: 139% Low liquidity 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑$20B

Trade
74%
2%
Yes 74¢No 61¢
35¢
$283
$6,378
0%
11%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑$22.5B

72%
2%
Yes 72¢No 81¢
53¢
$121
$9,146
0%
3%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑$25B

33%
Yes 33¢No 93¢
26¢
$102
$7,857
0.65%
9%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓$12.5B

22%
Yes 23¢No 80¢
$565
$7,096
0%
0.77%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓$15B

20%
Yes 23¢No 83¢
$247
$10,232
0.1%
5%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑$30B

20%
Yes 22¢No 82¢
$387
$6,965
0.43%
16%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑$40B

8%
Yes No 93¢
$2,650
$5,577
0%
0.15%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑$50B

3%
Yes No 98.6¢
2.6¢
$315
$5,781
0%
4%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

↓$17.5B

100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,342
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 5d
Yes
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether the AI search startup Perplexity will reach a private valuation of $22.5 billion or higher by the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of this outcome reaching that valuation threshold stands at 91.0%. Resolution will be determined by Nasdaq Private Market valuations published through December 31, 2026, with the market settling by January 4, 2027 if necessary NPM data is delayed.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this Perplexity valuation event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Perplexity will reach the specified valuation threshold by year-end, updated continuously as traders buy and sell shares. You can monitor the top outcome's implied chance percentage, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $61 across all related contracts. This single-venue view helps you understand current market sentiment and liquidity for valuation milestones tied to the AI search company.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While equity research teams may publish valuation targets based on revenue models and comparable companies, prediction markets incorporate real-time information and trader conviction through financial incentives. The current market-implied probability offers a crowd-sourced view that can be more dynamic than static analyst reports. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in more optimism or skepticism about Perplexity's growth trajectory than Wall Street consensus.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is structured as a binary contract where traders bet on whether Perplexity's valuation will reach the specified level by December 31. The top outcome currently reflects an implied probability of 74.0%, with total volume of $61,374 showing sustained interest. Prices move based on order flow and new information about Perplexity's funding rounds, user growth, revenue, and competitive positioning. Traders can enter or exit positions throughout the contract's lifetime, with prices settling at resolution based on verified valuation data.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Perplexity's valuation has reached the specified threshold by that date. Outcome determination relies on official announcements from Perplexity, credible third-party valuations from funding rounds, or other documented evidence of company valuation. Traders should monitor press releases, SEC filings if applicable, and venture capital announcements throughout the contract period to track progress toward the target valuation milestone.

Key catalysts include new funding announcements, which directly establish valuation; user growth metrics and engagement data showing market traction; revenue or profitability milestones; competitive developments in AI search; partnerships or integrations that expand reach; and macroeconomic shifts affecting venture valuations. Regulatory changes around AI or data privacy could also influence investor appetite. Major product launches, feature releases, or technical breakthroughs would signal progress toward the valuation target. Conversely, leadership changes, user churn, or competitive pressure could dampen sentiment and reduce the probability of hitting the valuation by year-end.