TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Which company has the best AI model end of September?
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polymarket
predict

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Aug 25, 2026, 9:21 AM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$585,179
Volume 24h:
$48,669
40%
Liquidity:
$747,948
15%
Open interest:
$53,528N/A

Anthropic

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 89.9¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 213% 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Anthropic

Trade
90%
Yes 89.9¢No 10.5¢
0.4¢
$67,851
$571
4,672%
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

Anthropic

90%
2%
Yes 90¢No 11¢
$84,657
$73,675
8%
51%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
90%
Yes 90¢No 10.8¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max:
polymarket

Google

4%
3%
Yes 4.8¢No 96.4¢
1.2¢
$20,055
$41,859
34%
141%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

Google

4%
Yes 4.8¢No 96.3¢
1.1¢
$1,031
$2,143
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
4%
Yes 4.8¢No 96.4¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 1.2¢
polymarket

OpenAI

4%
1%
Yes 3.7¢No 96.5¢
0.2¢
$16,316
$36,478
4%
77%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

OpenAI

4%
Yes 3.6¢No 96.6¢
0.2¢
$6,244
$562
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
4%
Yes 3.7¢No 96.6¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
predict

SpaceXAI

1%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.7¢
0.3¢
$717
$409
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

1%
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.1¢
0.3¢
$27,801
$34,579
3%
81%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.3¢
polymarket

Meta

0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$31,677
$30,789
12%
119%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

Meta

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$28,865
$29,497
11%
59%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

DeepSeek

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$33,399
$39,477
28%
111%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

Alibaba

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$33,334
$36,910
8%
178%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

Z.ai

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$25,892
$32,813
12%
171%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

Xiaomi

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$19,240
$30,104
10%
52%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

Microsoft

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$29,211
$24,164
13%
86%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

Moonshot

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$33,021
$22,881
15%
81%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
predict

ByteDance

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$33,935
$21,501
0%
52%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
Total markets: 25 of 42

Description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".