TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31?
predict
polymarket

Will ByteDance's valuation hit the target by December 31, 2026?

Total volume:
$200,122
Volume 24h:
$1,545
88%
Liquidity:
$6,475,544
373%
Open interest:
$9,130N/A

↑$1.5T

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 93.8¢ buys you 107 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $107 | Net Profit: $7 Multiplier: 1.07x | ROI: 7% | APY: 20% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

↑$1.5T

Trade
94%
Yes 93.8¢No 6.8¢
0.6¢
$1,050,503
$7,396
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$1.5T

Trade
6%
Yes 8¢No 97¢
5¢
$925
$9,123
0%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
50%
Yes 50.9¢No 51.9¢
Avg: 2.8¢Max: 5¢
predict

↑$1.75T

Trade
86%
Yes 86.2¢No 13.9¢
0.1¢
$45,737
$7,724
0%
186%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

↑$2.0T

Trade
71%
2%
Yes 75.9¢No 33.8¢
9.7¢
$35,665
$4,633
0%
18%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

↑$2.5T

Trade
47%
Yes 48.7¢No 54¢
2.7¢
$48,414
$8,484
8%
40%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$650B

Trade
41%
Yes 42¢No 61¢
3¢
$206
$3,607
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓$500B

Trade
35%
3%
Yes 35¢No 81¢
16¢
$212
$2,766
0%
0.28%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$700B

Trade
30%
Yes 31¢No 72¢
3¢
$671
$7,374
0%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

↑$3.0T

Trade
28%
2%
Yes 28.5¢No 72.7¢
1.2¢
$43,751
$43,606
0.48%
29%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$800B

Trade
17%
Yes 18¢No 84¢
2¢
$538
$7,167
0%
7%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$900B

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
$1,742
$3,397
0%
8%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$1.0T

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
$1,834
$9,071
0%
0.56%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

↓$800B

Trade
9%
Yes 8.9¢No 91.9¢
0.8¢
$44,389
$18,422
0.06%
0.55%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓$400B

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
$2,705
$8,064
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓$300B

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
$2,798
$7,429
0.38%
4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

↓$700B

Trade
7%
Yes 7.1¢No 93.8¢
0.9¢
$49,726
$10,248
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↑$1.25T

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
$3,223
$12,954
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

↑$1.25T

View
98%
Yes 98¢No 2¢
0.8¢
$5,087,947
$12,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
52%
Yes 52.5¢No 48.5¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 2¢
predict

↓$600B

Trade
5%
Yes 5.4¢No 94.7¢
0.1¢
$54,559
$8,830
2%
3%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

↓$550B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,284
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
Yes
predict

↑$1.1T

View
N/A
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,002
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
No
predict

↑$1.0T

View
N/A
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,925
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This event group tracks whether ByteDance's private market valuation will reach specified thresholds by December 31, 2026. Markets are listed on Polymarket with valuation targets ranging from $300B (low) to $1.5T (high), measured via Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) pricing data or public market capitalization following any IPO/direct listing.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All Polymarket ByteDance valuation markets apply the same NPM-based resolution framework with consistent edge-case handling for IPO, direct listing, and corporate action scenarios.Primary resolution logic: Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) pricing data published at https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data; official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts for any period following IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if ByteDance's valuation reaches or exceeds the specified threshold on any trading day between market creation and December 31, 2026.
  • Primary measurement: NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, published daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day for trading days only.
  • If ByteDance completes an IPO or direct listing before December 31, 2026, valuation is measured by the official IPO/direct listing price and subsequent public market capitalization (highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price multiplied by total outstanding common shares).
  • If ByteDance is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or ceases to exist as an independent entity, only NPM valuations and public market capitalizations achieved prior to transaction completion are considered; no transaction consideration is included.
  • If NPM ceases publishing data before the end of the period, resolution uses NPM data published prior to cessation plus applicable public market data following any corporate action.
  • Data gaps: if NPM has not published all business date data by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, markets may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027; if no further data is released, resolution proceeds with available data.
  • Revisions to previously published NPM data made after initial release are not considered unless correcting clearly erroneous data.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • IPO or Direct Listing: If ByteDance goes public before December 31, 2026, the market considers both NPM valuations up to the listing date and the valuation implied by the official IPO/direct listing price, plus public market capitalization between listing and December 31, 2026.
  • Acquisition or Merger (ByteDance Not Surviving Parent): If ByteDance is acquired or merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent, only NPM valuations and public market capitalizations achieved prior to transaction completion are considered. Transaction consideration and deal value are excluded.
  • NPM Data Cessation: If NPM stops publishing data before December 31, 2026, resolution uses the last published NPM data plus any applicable public market data following an IPO or direct listing.
  • Data Publication Delays: If NPM has not published data for all business dates by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, markets remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that deadline, resolution proceeds with available data.
  • Data Revisions: Revisions to previously published NPM data made after initial release are not considered unless they correct clearly erroneous data.
Timing: Resolution occurs on or after January 1, 2027, with a final deadline of 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027 if data gaps exist. Markets resolve YES if the threshold is reached on any trading day between market creation and December 31, 2026; otherwise they resolve NO.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Frequently asked questions

The ByteDance valuation market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Predict, tracking whether the company's valuation will reach a specified threshold by year-end. Participants on each platform stake capital on competing outcomes, and the collective odds reflect real-time consensus among thousands of traders. This market captures market-wide conviction through volume of $180,196 and recent activity of $538, offering a transparent window into how the investment community prices ByteDance's future enterprise value relative to traditional analyst estimates.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from Wall Street consensus because traders incorporate forward-looking sentiment, geopolitical risk, and regulatory uncertainty in real time. While traditional analysts publish periodic reports based on historical data and company guidance, prediction markets update continuously as new information emerges. This market's odds reflect aggregated trader conviction rather than a single firm's valuation model, making it a complementary signal to institutional research. The crowd-sourced nature of pricing can sometimes lead markets to move faster than formal analyst revisions.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct liquidity pools, user bases, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Predict may attract traders with different risk tolerances, time horizons, and information sets. Arbitrage opportunities between the two venues are often limited by withdrawal delays, platform-specific rules, and trading costs, allowing spreads of 53.0 percentage points to persist. Over time, informed traders typically exploit these gaps, but short-term divergence is normal and reflects the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once ByteDance's valuation is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the company's enterprise value meets or exceeds the specified threshold at that time. Traders should monitor company announcements, funding rounds, secondary market transactions, and credible financial news sources leading up to the deadline. Once the event is settled, positions are automatically closed and winnings distributed to holders of the correct outcome.

Major catalysts include ByteDance funding announcements, regulatory developments affecting its operations or valuation, changes in TikTok's legal status across key markets, and shifts in comparable company multiples. Earnings or user growth milestones, executive leadership changes, and geopolitical tensions involving China can all trigger rapid repricing. Secondary market transactions or insider commentary on valuation also influence trader sentiment. Monitoring tech industry news, regulatory filings, and ByteDance's official statements will help traders anticipate moves before they're fully priced in.