TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$115,807,555

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,566,556

336,771

Markets across

33,711

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,629

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Will Claude go down on __ days in August?
polymarket

Will Claude go down on __ days in August?

Jul 29, 2026, 3:59 PM EST - Aug 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$40,477
Volume 24h:
$7,324
137%
Liquidity:
$3,191
63%
Open interest:
$7,549N/A

8-10

 - Polymarket

8-10 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:06h:18m

Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 88¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

8-10

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 88¢No 16¢
4¢
$465
$9,966
27%
96%
N/A
4d 6h 18m
active
polymarket

5-7

Trade
13%
1%
Yes 15.9¢No 90.8¢
6.7¢
$905
$10,872
23%
75%
N/A
4d 6h 18m
active
polymarket

11-13

Trade
1%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.6¢
2¢
$441
$4,669
5%
79%
N/A
4d 6h 18m
active
polymarket

14+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$1,380
$5,531
9%
119%
N/A
4d 6h 18m
active
polymarket

<5

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,438
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 6h 18m
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).