TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.4b

24H VOL:

$91,248,924

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,163,520,955

334,440

Markets across

33,346

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,559

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
polymarket
kalshi

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

Total volume:
$1,837
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$233
20%
Open interest:
$395
0%

August 30

 - Polymarket

August 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 19, 2027

Screwworm National Emergency declared by August 30?

79%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 79% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% | APY: 97% Low liquidity 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

August 30

Trade
79%
3%
Yes 79¢No 91¢
70¢
$16
$61
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Michael Penix Jr.

Trade
10%
Yes 65¢No 100¢
65¢
N/A
$384
0%
0%
$384
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Aaron Rodgers

Trade
1%
Yes 65¢No 100¢
65¢
N/A
$11
0%
10%
$11
4mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
N/A
N/A
69¢
$111
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
N/A
N/A
73¢
$106
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Jacoby Brissett

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Tua Tagovailoa

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Lamar Jackson

Trade
N/A
N/A
65¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Josh Allen

Trade
N/A
N/A
78¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Bryce Young

Trade
N/A
N/A
55¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Caleb Williams

Trade
N/A
N/A
70¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Joe Burrow

Trade
N/A
N/A
65¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Shedeur Sanders

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Deshaun Watson

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Dak Prescott

Trade
N/A
N/A
60¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Bo Nix

Trade
N/A
N/A
65¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Jared Goff

Trade
N/A
N/A
75¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Jordan Love

Trade
N/A
N/A
70¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

C.J. Stroud

Trade
N/A
N/A
65¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Daniel Jones

Trade
N/A
N/A
45¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Trevor Lawrence

Trade
N/A
N/A
80¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Patrick Mahomes

Trade
N/A
N/A
65¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Justin Herbert

Trade
N/A
N/A
75¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Matthew Stafford

Trade
N/A
N/A
80¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Fernando Mendoza

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 3d
active
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

This event group tracks whether the United States federal government will formally declare a national emergency in response to a screwworm outbreak in U.S. livestock by specified dates. The markets differ in their cutoff dates but share the same core resolution criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets use identical criteria for what constitutes a qualifying national emergency declaration, differing only in their date thresholds.Primary resolution logic: Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments/agencies

Core resolution logic:

  • Declaration must be formal and explicitly mention screwworm
  • Renewals/extensions only count if text is materially modified to address screwworm
  • Statements, speeches, social media posts, and draft orders do not qualify

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Renewal Modification: If an existing emergency is renewed with explicit screwworm language, it qualifies even if the original declaration did not mention screwworm
  • Partial Declaration: Declarations targeting only non-livestock aspects of screwworm (e.g., environmental impact) do not qualify unless explicitly tied to livestock
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the relevant date threshold (June 30, August 30, October 31, or December 31) passes at 11:59 PM ET, based on whether a qualifying declaration existed at that timeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

To determine the outcome, each market evaluates whether the named quarterback participates in every regular-season game for their team during the 2026-27 NFL season, excluding weeks when the team has a bye. Participation is defined as taking at least one snap in each game, even if that snap is nullified by a penalty. Importantly, games occurring before the quarterback joins the team—through trade, signing, or other roster transactions—do not count toward the requirement. All markets share this consistent framework, with resolution contingent upon full seasonal availability without interruption except for bye weeks.