TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$149,897,520
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,214,596,905
340,805
Markets across
34,373
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,679
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Time left: 04d:21h:52m
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31?
$
Description
This event group tracks whether Anthropic's valuation will reach various thresholds by August 31, 2026. The markets differ in their valuation thresholds and, in one case, their valuation methodology.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Threshold and methodology divergence between Polymarket (NPM-reported valuation thresholds) and Kalshi (token price thresholds)Hero tip: Focus trades on the platform whose methodology aligns with your view — Polymarket for traditional valuation thresholds, Kalshi for token price thresholds. Avoid cross-platform arbitrage due to methodology differences.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if NPM-reported private valuation reaches or exceeds the listed amount by August 31, 2026. Public market cap applies post-IPO. Source: NPM data or Nasdaq market cap.
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if Ornn - Anthropic average price per million tokens is above the listed amount on August 31, 2026 at 10AM ET. Source: Ornn market data.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using official regular-hours trading prices published for the company’s listed equities on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be the relevant Market Cap figure displayed on https://www.nasdaq.com/ as well as official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Ornn-reported average price per million Anthropic tokens as of August 31, 2026, at 10AM ET, using the most recent settled print available at that time. Ornn settles daily prints approximately 12 hours after each day's 00:00 UTC close, meaning the available settled print at expiration might reflect data from the prior calendar day rather than the expiration date itself. No revisions to the underlying data after the expiration time will be considered. All assessments use the USD iteration of the index, with values rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a distinct threshold, and if the reported price exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.
