TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$149,897,520

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,214,596,905

340,805

Markets across

34,373

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,679

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Which company has best AI model end of August?
polymarket
predict
kalshi

Which company has best AI model end of August?

Total volume:
$2,919,126
Volume 24h:
$44,917
80%
Liquidity:
$1,420,105
21%
Open interest:
$47,945
30%

Anthropic

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 03d:18h:31m

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 20% 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Anthropic

Trade
99%
Yes 99.8¢No 1¢
0.8¢
$503,610
$9,035
0%
27%
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
99%
Yes 99.5¢No 0.9¢
0.4¢
$16,212
$504,127
0.77%
14%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
kalshi

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,762
N/A
N/A
$6,239
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
66%
Yes 66.4¢No 34¢
Avg: 33.7¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.5¢
0.2¢
$11,957
$215,215
0.7%
13%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

OpenAI

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
0.5¢
$62,605
$390
0%
66%
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
kalshi

OpenAI

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,325
N/A
N/A
$4,155
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.7%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 33.6¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

Google

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$41,070
$238,513
2%
35%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

Google

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$6,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Bytedance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$20,539
$349,608
3%
154%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

Bytedance

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$7,989
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$47,249
$297,799
0.01%
12%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

DeepSeek

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$7,989
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
kalshi

DeepSeek

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,088
N/A
N/A
$7,549
0d 0h 0m
Yes
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
50%
Yes 50.1¢No 50¢
Avg: 100¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$21,639
$237,503
0%
42%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

Z.ai

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$4,995
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
kalshi

Z.ai

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,655
N/A
N/A
$7,395
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 100¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$19,537
$216,622
0.52%
7%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

SpaceXAI

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$7,972
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Meta

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$40,681
$186,342
0%
8%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

Meta

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$8,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$49,869
$166,588
0%
8%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

Alibaba

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$1,996
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$22,645
$119,760
0%
11%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
predict

Moonshot

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$4,995
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 31m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$29,721
$48,963
0%
345%
N/A
3d 2h 31m
active
Total markets: 25 of 49

Description

This event group determines which company will have the best AI model as measured by the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of August 2026. The resolution is based on the ranking and Arena score of models listed on the specified leaderboard.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same resolution criteria based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, including tie-breaking rules and contingency plans for source unavailability.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard

Core resolution logic:

  • Models are ranked primarily by their leaderboard rank at August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
  • Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, using underlying unrounded values
  • Remaining ties are resolved by alphabetical order of company names
  • If the leaderboard is permanently unavailable, the market resolves to "Other"

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Permanent Source Unavailability: If arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard is permanently unavailable, all markets resolve to "Other"
  • Tie in Arena Score: If models have identical Arena scores, alphabetical order of company names is used as the final tiebreaker
Timing: Resolution occurs on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, based on the leaderboard at that exact timeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenRouter Top Models chart for the week of August 10, 2026, specifically identifying the model author company of the single model with the highest weekly token volume. Rankings are determined solely by individual model performance, not aggregate company volume. If multiple companies tie for the highest usage, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies; if none exists, all tied entities share the top rank. In such cases, contracts for tied entities resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. No affiliation exists between Kalshi and the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".