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Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
$
Description
This event group tracks the ranking of the year 2026 in terms of global temperature compared to all other years with recorded data. The markets will resolve based on the numerical rank determined by NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use the same resolution criteria based on NASA's temperature index data for 2026.Primary resolution logic: NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt)Core resolution logic:
- Years are ranked in descending order of temperature, with the hottest year as rank 1.
- If 2026 ties with another year, it takes the rank of the tied year.
- The market resolves immediately when the data becomes available, even if later revised.
- If NASA data is unavailable by March 1, 2027, resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie with multiple years: If 2026 ties with multiple years, it will resolve according to the rank of the tied group (e.g., if tied for 2nd with another year, it resolves as 2).
- Data revision after resolution: The market resolves immediately upon data release, even if the data is later revised.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
