TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$136,531,341

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,197,913,311

339,027

Markets across

34,284

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
polymarket
kalshi

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?

Total volume:
$45,389
Volume 24h:
$25
92%
Liquidity:
$6,030
16%
Open interest:
$7,865N/A

$518K - $524K

 - Polymarket

$518K - $524K - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?

34%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 34.9¢ buys you 287 shares | Odds: 34% Total Payout: $287 | Net Profit: $187 Multiplier: 2.87x | ROI: 187% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 33 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$518K - $524K

Trade
34%
Yes 34.9¢No 67.7¢
2.6¢
$998
$14,720
0%
13%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

$512K - $518K

Trade
34%
Yes 34¢No 67¢
1¢
$813
$7,623
0%
110%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

$524K - $530K

Trade
22%
Yes 22.2¢No 94.9¢
17.1¢
$637
$4,884
0%
9%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

<$512K

Trade
13%
6%
Yes 15.9¢No 90.3¢
6.2¢
$633
$1,189
0%
23%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

$530K - $536K

Trade
4%
Yes 6.2¢No 97.6¢
3.8¢
$756
$4,326
0%
3%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

$542K+

Trade
3%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.6¢
0.2¢
$1,024
$4,460
0%
5%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

$536K - $542K

Trade
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.8¢
1.9¢
$1,170
$8,187
0.31%
3%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above -0.20%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.15%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.10%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.05%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.00%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.05%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.10%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.15%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.20%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.25%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.30%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.35%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.40%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.45%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
kalshi

Above 0.50%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This event group tracks the median home value in the DC Metro area as of September 30, 2026. Markets span multiple price ranges and thresholds, with resolution based on Parcl Labs Sales Price Index data adjusted for median home size.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental metric divergence: Polymarket uses absolute median home value data while Kalshi uses housing inflation index percentageHero tip: Do not treat these markets as correlated. Polymarket resolves to actual median home value dollars; Kalshi resolves to inflation percentage changes. Trade each market based on its specific resolution metric.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026. Calculates median home value by multiplying price per square foot by 1800 sq ft. Uses official real estate transaction data.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index for July 31, 2026. Measures percentage change in housing costs rather than absolute home values. This is an inflation metric, not a home valuation metric.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds of the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index as of July 31, 2026, to determine the resolution. Each threshold represents a specific percentage value, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the index is above the corresponding threshold. Thresholds range from -0.20% to 0.50%, in increments of 0.05%. The structure allows for granular assessment of housing inflation levels, with higher thresholds indicating greater inflation. All thresholds are evaluated against the same index value on the same date, ensuring consistency across all outcomes.