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US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket
kalshi
limitless

US recession by end of 2026?

Total volume:
$5,076,221
Volume 24h:
$10,334
7%
Liquidity:
$22,225
41%
Open interest:
$893,202
0.64%

Starts

 - Kalshi

Starts - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

Will there be a recession in 2026?

9%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 9¢ buys you 1,111 shares | Odds: 9% Total Payout: $1,111 | Net Profit: $1,011 Multiplier: 11.11x | ROI: 1,011% APY not meaningful 156 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Starts

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$3,353,273
0.19%
1%
$893,202
5mo 6d
active
polymarket

US recession by end of 2026?

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$22,225
$1,717,619
0%
0.46%
N/A
5mo 6d
active
limitless

US recession by end of 2026?

Trade
7%
Yes 7.2¢No 92.8¢
1.5¢
N/A
$5,329
0%
0%
N/A
5mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
8%
Yes 8.1¢No 92.4¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 1.5¢
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the probability of a U.S. recession occurring by the end of 2026, based on either two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or an official NBER recession announcement. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless shows a 10.0% probability for a recession by end of 2026, with a 9.0% probability assigned to the alternative framing. Resolution will be determined by Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly GDP data and National Bureau of Economic Research official announcements. Watch for Q4 2026 GDP growth figures, which will be the final quarterly data point in the resolution window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms apply identical resolution criteria: two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annualized) between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or NBER recession announcement during 2025-2026, with advance estimates accepted and resolution finalized by Q4 2026 advance estimate release.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) official recession announcements.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters, where both quarters fall within Q2 2025 through Q4 2026 (inclusive).
  • Market resolves YES if NBER publicly announces a recession occurred in the United States at any point during 2025 or 2026, provided announcement is made by the time BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Advance estimates are considered valid for resolution; if advance estimate for any quarter is negative and the most recent prior quarter estimate is also negative, YES resolution applies immediately.
  • Market resolves NO if neither condition is met by the Q4 2026 advance estimate release date.
  • Resolution finalizes upon whichever occurs first: BEA Q4 2026 advance estimate release or NBER recession announcement (if within the announcement window).

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Advance Estimate Reversal: If an advance estimate for a quarter is negative but a subsequent revision becomes positive, the market uses the most recent available estimate at the time of resolution. However, if two consecutive quarters show negative advance estimates at any point, YES resolution is triggered immediately.
  • NBER Announcement Timing: NBER announcements made after Q4 2026 advance estimate release do not trigger YES resolution. The announcement must occur on or before the BEA Q4 2026 advance estimate publication date.
  • Quarters Outside Window: Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occurring before Q2 2025 or after Q4 2026 do not trigger YES resolution. The window is strictly Q2 2025 through Q4 2026 inclusive.
  • Single Negative Quarter: A single quarter of negative GDP growth, regardless of magnitude, does not resolve the market to YES. Two consecutive quarters are required.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon the earlier of: (1) BEA's release of the advance estimate for Q4 2026 (typically late January 2027), or (2) NBER's public announcement of a recession during 2025-2026, provided the announcement is made by the Q4 2026 advance estimate release date. Market remains open until one of these events occurs.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Kalshi

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Frequently asked questions

The US recession prediction market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether a recession will occur by the end of 2026. Traders on both platforms are pricing the same underlying event, though each uses its own order-matching engine and user base. Combined volume across these venues totals $5,045,039, with $3,327 traded in the last 24 hours. This cross-platform view reveals how different market participants—from retail traders to institutions—assess near-term economic risk, offering a dynamic alternative to traditional forecasting methods.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from consensus economist views because they aggregate dispersed information and real-money incentives in real time. While professional forecasters may rely on models and lagged data, traders here respond immediately to breaking economic news, Fed policy shifts, and labor-market signals. This market's current pricing reflects traders' collective judgment on recessionary risk over the next two years. Comparing these odds to published analyst surveys can highlight where markets are more pessimistic or optimistic, revealing gaps between institutional expectations and decentralized trader sentiment.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds on the same recession question due to variations in user composition, liquidity depth, and market microstructure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics and risk appetites, and order-book dynamics can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket currently shows 8.5% implied probability, while Kalshi reflects 9.0%, a spread of 0.5 percentage points. These differences typically narrow as informed traders arbitrage across venues, but they can persist if regulatory or technical barriers limit cross-platform trading.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders holding positions until expiration will see their holdings settled based on whether a recession has officially occurred by the specified deadline. The resolution hinges on observable economic data and widely recognized indicators, ensuring clarity and finality for all participants. Early exit is always available; traders need not hold through resolution if market conditions or personal conviction change.

Key catalysts include monthly employment reports, inflation data, GDP growth figures, and Federal Reserve policy announcements. Unexpected job losses, yield-curve inversions, or credit-market stress could sharply increase recession odds. Conversely, strong wage growth, resilient consumer spending, or dovish Fed pivots may lower perceived recessionary risk. Geopolitical shocks, financial-sector disruptions, or corporate earnings misses can also trigger repricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously, so this market often moves ahead of traditional forecasts, making it a leading indicator of shifting economic sentiment.