TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
How high will US unemployment go in 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in October?
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Intro
This market tracks whether the US unemployment rate will exceed 3.7% at any point during 2026, based on the seasonally adjusted U-3 measure. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for unemployment rising above 3.7% stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation Reports, with the U-3 figure from Table A-15 serving as the official metric. Watch the December 2026 Employment Situation Report release, as this will be the final data point determining whether any month in 2026 recorded unemployment at or above the threshold.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket measures the maximum unemployment rate across any month in 2026 (Jan-Dec), while Kalshi measures only the October 2026 rate. Both use the same U-3 metric from BLS Employment Situation Reports, but different temporal scopes create divergent settlement outcomes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket contracts capture tail risk (worst month of 2026); Kalshi contracts are point-in-time bets on October. If you believe unemployment will spike mid-year but recover by October, Polymarket thresholds will resolve Yes while Kalshi may resolve No. Conversely, if October is the weak month, Kalshi will resolve Yes while Polymarket may not. Do not arbitrage across platforms assuming identical outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves Yes if any Employment Situation Report for January through December 2026 shows U-3 at or above the threshold (5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 7.0%, or 10.0%). Captures the maximum unemployment rate observed in any single month during the full calendar year 2026. Resolution deadline: March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (or when December 2026 report is released, whichever is earlier).Kalshi:
Resolves Yes if the October 2026 Employment Situation Report shows U-3 above the specified threshold (3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, or 5.0%). Resolves exclusively on a single month (October) with finer granularity (0.1% increments vs. Polymarket's 0.5-3.0% increments).
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Kalshi
The unemployment markets for October 2026 are structured around successive threshold levels of the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report. Each market resolves to Yes if the reported rate exceeds its designated threshold. The thresholds range incrementally from 3.7% through 5.0%, creating a ladder of outcomes that collectively capture the distribution of possible unemployment levels. Resolution is based solely on the official BLS Employment Situation Report data for October 2026, with each threshold representing a distinct market outcome. This structure allows participants to express granular views about labor market conditions and the probability of unemployment reaching various levels during the specified month.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets price unemployment outcomes based on live trader conviction rather than consensus economist models. While Wall Street forecasters typically publish point estimates and ranges quarterly, this market updates continuously as new jobs data, Fed policy signals, and recession fears emerge. Traders often react faster to economic shocks than survey revisions, making prediction odds a leading indicator of shifting sentiment. However, markets can overshoot or undershoot if participants misread data or extrapolate short-term trends too far into 2026.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and contract designs. Kalshi may frame the question around a specific unemployment ceiling, while Polymarket targets a different threshold or measurement month, creating apples-to-oranges pricing. Regulatory constraints, fee structures, and user-interface design also influence which outcomes attract volume. Savvy traders exploit these gaps by comparing odds across venues, though arbitrage opportunities typically narrow as information spreads.
This market settles on Dec 31, 2026, at which point the final unemployment reading will be locked in. Resolution hinges on official labor statistics released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, ensuring an objective, auditable outcome. Traders holding positions through expiration will see payouts determined by whether actual joblessness meets or exceeds the thresholds they wagered on. Early exit is always available if conviction changes or hedging needs arise before the deadline.
Monthly jobs reports, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and recession indicators will drive sharp repricing throughout 2026. Unexpected layoffs, corporate earnings misses, or geopolitical shocks can spike unemployment fears overnight. Conversely, strong wage growth or business investment may lower jobless expectations. Election cycles, trade policy shifts, and credit-market stress also influence labor demand. Traders monitor initial jobless claims, participation rates, and forward-looking PMI surveys as early warning systems before official unemployment data arrives.
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