TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?
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Intro
This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise its target federal funds rate at any point during 2026 through the December meeting. Across Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows 62.0% probability of at least one rate hike occurring between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, with 35.5% probability of no hikes. Resolution will be determined by the Federal Reserve's official website and credible reporting of rate decisions. Watch the Fed's December 8-9, 2026 meeting announcement, as this marks the final decision window for rate changes that will trigger resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution criteria contain logical contradictions (resolving Yes on 0bps and rate cuts, which are not hikes) and are specific to a single date, whereas Polymarket and Predict use a coherent, date-range-based approach. Kalshi's market is fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market should be avoided due to internal logical failures in the resolution criteria. The inclusion of 0bps (no change) and rate cuts as Yes outcomes directly contradicts the market title 'Fed rate hike in 2026?' Trade Polymarket or Predict instead, which both use the same, clear criteria: any increase in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between January 1 and December 8-9, 2026 resolves to Yes.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves to Yes if: (1) 25bps hike on December 9, 2026, (2) >25bps hike on December 9, 2026, (3) 0bps on December 9, 2026, or (4) 25bps cut on December 9, 2026. This is internally contradictory: 0bps is neither a hike nor a cut, and cuts are the opposite of hikes. The criteria are also date-specific (December 9 only) rather than covering the full year.Polymarket:
Resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (December 8-9, 2026). Otherwise, No. Primary source: Federal Reserve official website. Market may not resolve to No until after the December meeting decision is released.Predict:
Identical to Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (December 8-9, 2026). Otherwise, No. Primary source: Federal Reserve official website.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
This event resolves based on the Federal Reserve's policy action on December 9, 2026. Each outcome is mutually exclusive—only one can resolve to Yes. The possible actions are: a rate cut of more than 25 basis points, a rate cut of exactly 25 basis points, maintaining the current rate (0 basis points change), a rate hike of 25 basis points, or a rate hike exceeding 25 basis points. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No.
Predict
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders, often incorporating private information and forward-looking analysis faster than traditional economist surveys. While Wall Street analysts publish rate-hike forecasts based on economic models and Fed communications, prediction markets reflect live consensus probability updated continuously. Prediction markets tend to be more dynamic and responsive to breaking economic data, employment reports, and inflation surprises. Comparing the two reveals whether professional forecasters and market participants align on fed rate hike in 2026 odds, or whether traders are pricing in scenarios analysts haven't fully priced in yet.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools. Kalshi typically draws larger retail volume and global participation, while Polymarket operates under U.S. derivatives regulation and may appeal to institutional traders. Differences in order-book depth, fee structures, and user interface can cause temporary price gaps on the fed rate hike in 2026 question. Additionally, each platform's specific contract wording—such as the exact meeting date or rate-hike threshold—may be interpreted slightly differently by traders, leading to a spread of 14.0 percentage points or more between venues. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps, but they can persist if liquidity is thin.
This market resolves on Dec 9, 2026. The outcome hinges on whether the Federal Reserve announces and implements a rate increase at any point during 2026. Resolution typically depends on official Fed communications and the federal funds rate target range published after policy decisions. Traders should monitor Fed meeting schedules, FOMC statements, and economic indicators leading up to the end date to assess the probability of a rate hike occurring before resolution.
Major inflation reports, employment data, and GDP growth figures will heavily influence fed rate hike in 2026 odds. Unexpected spikes in consumer prices or wage growth could push traders to bet higher on a hike, while recession signals or disinflation might lower odds. Fed Chair statements, minutes from FOMC meetings, and forward guidance on monetary policy are key catalysts. Geopolitical shocks, financial stability concerns, or credit-market stress could also shift expectations. Real-time market moves on Kalshi and Polymarket will reflect these developments, so tracking economic calendars and central bank communications is essential for informed trading.
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