TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 28d:00h:24m
June Inflation US - Monthly: ≤0.1%
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Intro
This market tracks the month-over-month percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers in June 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Aggregating data from Kalshi and Limitless, the consensus probability that June inflation will be at or below 0.1% stands at 84.3%. The official BLS Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for release on July 15, 2026, will determine the final resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi defines a binary YES/NO market covering only nine discrete CPI values, leaving outcomes above 0.6% and below -0.2% undefined. Limitless defines a complete categorical bucketing system covering the full outcome space from ≤0.1% to ≥0.9%.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market has a structural gap: it does not explicitly resolve for CPI values of 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.9%, or any value ≥1.0%, nor for values below -0.2%. If the actual June 2026 CPI m-o-m falls outside Kalshi's nine-value set, the market may resolve to NO by default, or require emergency clarification. Limitless has no such gap. If you expect CPI above 0.6% or below -0.2%, Limitless is the safer choice. Cross-check Kalshi's terms for a fallback rule before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Binary YES/NO market resolves YES if CPI m-o-m is exactly one of: -0.2%, -0.1%, 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, or 0.6%. No explicit rule for outcomes outside this set. Quote: 'If the CPI month-over-month is exactly [value] in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' (repeated for nine values only).Limitless:
Categorical market with ten mutually exclusive buckets covering the full range: ≤0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.8%, ≥0.9%. Each bucket resolves independently based on the official BLS CPI-U report to one decimal place. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in June 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.'
Kalshi
If the CPI month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly -0.1% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.0% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.1% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.2% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.4% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.5% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.6% in Jun 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Limitless
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in June 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets often diverge from consensus economist forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, forward guidance, and tail-risk scenarios that traditional surveys may lag. While professional forecasters typically publish point estimates months in advance, this market allows continuous repricing as labor reports, Fed communications, and commodity prices shift. Comparing current odds to the median Wall Street forecast reveals whether traders are pricing in faster disinflation, sticky price growth, or volatility that analysts have not yet fully priced in.
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, uses distinct outcome brackets, and may weight recent data differently. Kalshi's binary or range-based structure may emphasize tail outcomes, while Limitless's granular thresholds allow traders to express precise inflation views. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and platform-specific hedging flows also drive wedges between prices. Arbitrage opportunities can persist if one venue prices a particular inflation band as significantly more or less likely than the other, rewarding alert traders who spot and exploit these gaps.
This market resolves around Jul 15, 2026, once June 2026 CPI data becomes available and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official month-over-month percentage change reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders' positions settle based on whether the actual figure falls within their predicted range or matches their binary choice, with payouts distributed according to each platform's rules once the data is confirmed and no longer subject to revision.
Federal Reserve policy announcements, employment reports, wage growth data, and commodity price swings will all influence trader expectations for June inflation. Geopolitical shocks, supply-chain disruptions, or shifts in consumer demand could accelerate or dampen price pressures. Energy prices, particularly oil, often drive month-to-month CPI volatility. Additionally, any surprise in prior-month inflation readings or forward guidance from Fed officials will trigger repricing as traders update their probability estimates. Real-time market moves reflect the market's collective assessment of these evolving catalysts.
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