TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
What price will Solana hit in 2026?
Will Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?-b8Pd
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether Solana will reach $100 per token by the end of 2026. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus stands at 98.0% for a yes outcome. Resolution will be determined by Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle data, specifically whether the "High" price touches $100 or above at any point between November 24, 2025, at 14:30 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. Watch the November 24, 2025 start date, which marks the opening of the betting window for this price target.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses intraday price extremes (High/Low from 1-minute candles) across the entire 2025-2026 period, while Kalshi uses a single point-in-time snapshot (60-second average at exactly 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027). This creates fundamentally different settlement value definitions.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, you win if SOL ever touches the price target anytime during the 13+ month window. On Kalshi, you only win if SOL is above the threshold at the exact moment of Jan 1, 2027 midnight—a volatile asset could spike to $600 on Polymarket but close 2026 at $150, losing on Kalshi. Choose your platform based on whether you're betting on 'will it ever reach' versus 'where will it be.'Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves YES if Solana's High (for upside targets) or Low (for downside targets) on any single 1-minute candle between Nov 24, 2025 14:30 ET and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET meets or exceeds/falls to the specified price. Resolution source is Binance SOL/USDT 1m chart. This is an 'ever touch' mechanism—a single extreme candle triggers resolution.Kalshi:
Resolves YES if the simple 60-second average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI is above the threshold at exactly 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027. This is a point-in-time snapshot at a single moment, independent of any intraday extremes. Resolution source is CF Benchmarks real-time index, not exchange spot price.
Polymarket
What price will Solana hit before 2027?
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI price data collected at 12 AM EST on January 1, 2027, with outcomes at thresholds of $100, $150, $200, $250, $300, $350, $400, and $450. The official final value is calculated as the average of these 60 price points. CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index is used rather than other sources like Google or Coinbase to ensure consistency and accuracy in price determination.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect forward-looking consensus rather than current spot price. Kalshi and Polymarket participants are pricing in volatility, regulatory risk, and adoption catalysts over the next two years. Market odds often diverge from spot expectations because traders embed tail risks and long-term fundamentals into their positions. The aggregated odds across both venues reveal whether the market expects Solana to appreciate, depreciate, or consolidate relative to today's valuation.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites. Polymarket's top outcome shows 53.0% chance, while Kalshi's leading outcome reflects 71.0% chance, a spread of 18.0 percentage points. Differences stem from varying fee structures, user geography, market depth, and how each platform frames the same underlying question. Arbitrage opportunities may persist if one venue systematically misprices Solana's 2026 trajectory relative to the other.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.