TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
US Trade Deficit - June 2026
polymarket
kalshi

US Trade Deficit - June 2026

Total volume:
$15,600
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
$249
0%

Above ZAR-4.00B

 - Kalshi

Above ZAR-4.00B - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 4, 2026

Time left: 07d:18h:19m

Will South Africa balance of trade for July 2026 be above ZAR-4.00B?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 301% 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above ZAR-4.00B

Trade
88%
Yes 97¢No 99¢
96¢
N/A
$6
0%
0%
$6
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR0.00B

Trade
85%
Yes 92¢No 99¢
91¢
N/A
$6
0%
0%
$6
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR4.00B

Trade
78%
Yes 87¢No 99¢
86¢
N/A
$6
0%
0%
$6
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR8.00B

Trade
72%
Yes 81¢No 96¢
77¢
N/A
$6
0%
0%
$6
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR12.00B

Trade
51%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
N/A
$4
0%
0%
$2
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR16.00B

Trade
34%
Yes 96¢No 99¢
95¢
N/A
$221
0%
0%
$216
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR20.00B

Trade
15%
Yes 86¢No 99¢
85¢
N/A
$12
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR24.00B

Trade
8%
Yes 98¢No 91¢
89¢
N/A
$12
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR28.00B

Trade
3%
Yes 99¢No 96¢
95¢
N/A
$12
0%
0%
N/A
1w 18h
active
kalshi

Above ZAR32.00B

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$9
0%
800%
$7
1w 18h
active
polymarket

70-80B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

50-60B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,240
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

90-100B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,181
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

80-90B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

60-70B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,023
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

100B+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$556
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

<50B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$407
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks the U.S. Trade Deficit for June 2026, comparing it against various monetary thresholds across different prediction markets. The resolution is based on the official Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report released in August 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental scope divergence - markets track completely different economic indicators (US vs South Africa trade deficits)Hero tip: These markets represent entirely different economic indicators and geographic regions. Do not treat them as related or interchangeable. Focus trading decisions on the specific country and metric relevant to each market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the US International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the BEA report scheduled for August 4, 2026. Eight bracket markets from <$50B to >=$100B.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the South Africa balance of trade for July 2026 against multiple ZAR thresholds ranging from above ZAR-4.00B to above ZAR32.00B. Ten sequential threshold markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on South Africa's balance of trade for July 2026 relative to multiple threshold values. If the balance exceeds any of the specified thresholds—ranging from ZAR-4.00 billion up to ZAR32.00 billion—the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Thresholds are progressively higher, allowing for granular assessment of trade performance. All markets share the same outcome determination framework, with the final balance compared against each threshold to identify which, if any, are surpassed.