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U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
polymarket

What will U.K. annual inflation be in December 2026?

Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM EST - Jan 19, 2027, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$74,796
Volume 24h:
$5,756
1,252%
Liquidity:
$14,673
10%
Open interest:
$5,084N/A

3.5–3.9%

 - Polymarket

3.5–3.9% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 20, 2027

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

23%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 23.1¢ buys you 433 shares | Odds: 23% Total Payout: $433 | Net Profit: $333 Multiplier: 4.33x | ROI: 333% High Projected APY: 3,799% 145 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.5–3.9%

Trade
23%
Yes 23.1¢No 77¢
0.1¢
$2,713
$28,312
0%
7%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

2.5–2.9%

Trade
22%
2%
Yes 22.1¢No 78¢
0.1¢
$2,373
$20,531
13%
53%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

4.0-4.4%

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
$2,165
$8,166
42%
46%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

4.5%+

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
$2,926
$8,959
13%
14%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

1.5–1.9%

Trade
4%
Yes 8.1¢No 99.3¢
7.4¢
$1,116
$2,417
0%
337%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

2.0–2.4%

Trade
4%
Yes 4.9¢No 97.3¢
2.2¢
$1,115
$4,209
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

1.0–1.4%

Trade
3%
Yes 3.4¢No 97.7¢
1.1¢
$1,654
$1,260
0%
6%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

<1.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$613
$943
0%
8%
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

3.0–3.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 3w 4d
active
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether the UK's year-over-year inflation rate will fall within the 2.5% to 2.9% range during 2026. On Polymarket, this outcome currently stands at 74.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Consumer Price Index figure reported by the Office for National Statistics in their monthly inflation bulletin. Watch for the ONS Consumer Price Index release scheduled for January 20, 2027, which will report the 12-month inflation rate ending December 2026 and settle this market.

Polymarket

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

Frequently asked questions

The U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the UK's 2026 inflation will reach or exceed 4.5%. The interface displays the current probability estimate, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume to help you monitor market sentiment. With total group volume of $74,796, this event attracts meaningful participation. The dashboard updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the latest consensus on UK inflation outcomes for 2026.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket currently reflect 23.1% probability for UK inflation reaching 4.5% or higher in 2026. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which typically range between 2% and 3.5% based on Bank of England guidance and consensus economic models. The gap suggests traders are pricing in greater upside inflation risk than mainstream economists currently project. Comparing market-implied probabilities to analyst consensus helps identify where sentiment diverges from institutional forecasts.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 market is structured as a binary contract: Will the UK's 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%? Traders buy YES or NO shares, with prices ranging from 0 to 1 (representing 0–100% probability). The current price reflects 23.1% probability for the YES outcome. Volume of $74,796 demonstrates active two-sided trading. Prices adjust in real time as new information arrives and trader conviction shifts, with each transaction updating the market probability.

The U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 market resolves on Jan 20, 2027. Resolution is determined by official UK inflation data for the 2026 calendar year, typically published by the Office for National Statistics. The outcome hinges on whether the annual inflation rate meets or exceeds 4.5%. Traders should monitor ONS releases and Bank of England communications throughout 2026, as these will directly influence final settlement. The market closes at the specified end date, after which no further trading occurs.

Key catalysts for UK inflation include Bank of England interest rate decisions, which directly influence borrowing costs and demand. Energy and commodity price shocks affect input costs across the economy. Wage growth data signals domestic inflation pressure, while sterling exchange rates impact import prices. Fiscal policy announcements—tax changes, spending plans—can stimulate or cool demand. Supply chain disruptions or geopolitical events may drive goods inflation. Monthly CPI releases throughout 2026 will provide real-time signals, allowing traders to adjust positions as the year unfolds and the 4.5% threshold becomes clearer.