TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$115,807,555

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,566,556

336,771

Markets across

33,711

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,629

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
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Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Jul 20, 2026, 8:40 PM EST - Aug 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$62,665
Volume 24h:
$1,373
211%
Liquidity:
$12,482
6%
Open interest:
$8,107N/A

Moonshot

 - Polymarket

Moonshot - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:06h:11m

Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?

78%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 80.1¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 78% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
78%
20%
Yes 80.1¢No 24.1¢
4.2¢
$388
$6,607
5%
87%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

13%
21%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
$548
$14,915
6%
84%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

Alibaba

2%
1%
Yes No 98.2¢
1.2¢
$2,625
$12,467
0.74%
15%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

2%
1%
Yes 3.1¢No 99¢
2.1¢
$1,142
$2,002
1%
22%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
1.2¢
$911
$2,839
0.5%
33%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

Baidu

1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.8¢
1.3¢
$1,534
$14,527
0.5%
7%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

Tencent

0%
2%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$776
$2,661
0.14%
57%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$1,173
$2,091
0.18%
16%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,289
$2,407
0.16%
16%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$1,061
$1,163
0%
8%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
$1,034
$985
0%
9%
N/A
4d 6h 11m
active
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".